Skip to main content
Mt Dobson ski resort
Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

📷 Mt Dobson

Oceania

Mt Dobson

Not operating today

Not operating today

Conditions data updated Mon, Aug 31, 11:05 AM UTC · informational only

Not operating today

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Aug 31

today

Past 24 Hours

0.2cm

Reported by Mt Dobson

Past 48 Hours

0.2cm

Past 10 Days

28.6cm

14-Day Forecast

23.8cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

20

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

5

2026 season

Updated: Aug 31, 11:05 AM•Weather at base: 1725m

Overview

Mt Dobson is a ski resort in Oceania, New Zealand, currently not operating today (Not operating today). Today's SnowSure™ Score is 44/100, 25 cm (9.8 in) of snow in the last 7 days. The 14-day ensemble forecast across seven weather models (ECMWF, GFS, GEM, JMA, ICON, Météo-France, Met Norway) calls for ~24 cm (9.4 in) of new snow. Conditions last updated 2026-08-31 11:05 UTC.

Resort Guide

Mt Dobson is a ski resort located in the Mackenzie District of New Zealand’s South Island, offering expansive terrain across 400 hectares with elevations ranging from 1,692 to 2,030 meters. The resort is known for its wide-open slopes, uncrowded atmosphere, and natural snow, catering to beginners, intermediates, and advanced skiers and snowboarders. Key amenities include a large day lodge, equipment rentals, and a ski school, with the resort’s relaxed vibe and panoramic alpine views distinguishing it as a welcoming destination for families and groups.

Resort Info

Summit2030m
Base1725m
Vertical305m
Lifts4
Runs14
Skiable Area988 acres
Average snowfall100 inches / 254 cm
CountryNew Zealand
Visit Resort Website →Follow on Instagram →View Trail Map →

Season dates

StatusNot operating today

Ski passes

No ski pass found

Access tiers change by season — confirm benefits on the pass operator's site.

Top Après Ski

Unable to determine top apres ski place for this resort.

SnowSure™ ScoreAI
Not operating today

Not operating today

Not operating today

SnowSure scores and forecasts below are for planning and reference only while the resort is closed.

—

Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

—

Recent

In the last week, 25cm of fresh snow has fallen.

—

Forecast

The 14-day snow outlook indicates an average of 24cm of new snow expected.

—

Historic

This season's snow total of 130cm is at 95% of the 5-year average of 137cm for this time of year.

Not operating today · Data updated Mon, Aug 31, 11:05 AM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

2030mECMWF Model

Updated Aug 31, 2026 at 11:05 AM

29cm
24h
24cm
Past 10d
14-Day Forecast
29
Prev10d
0.2
Now31
—
T1
1.8
W2
—
T3
9.4
F4
0.6
S5
25.5
S6
Past
Today
Forecast

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

Current Conditions

Reported Mon, Aug 31, 11:05 AM UTC

Depth by source

every reading we have
  • Resort ReportedBase 40cm · Mid 65cm · Summit 90cm
  • Open-MeteoBase 83cm · Summit 83cm

The headline depth uses the most trusted available source. We show every reading so you can judge for yourself.

Base

1725m

Temp

-11°C

Wind

4.7km/h

Snow Depth

--

14-Day Forecast

27.4cm

Mid-Mountain

1878m

Temp

--°C

Wind

5km/h

Snow Depth

--

14-Day Forecast

23.8cm

Summit

2030m

Temp

-13°C

Wind

4.7km/h

Snow Depth

--

14-Day Forecast

31.1cm

Ops signals

  • ●Freezing level below base — snowmaking window open
  • ●Cold summit temps — snow preservation favorable

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Mt Dobson El Niño rank & forecast

Mt Dobson ranks #299 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −6% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#299 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −6% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mt Dobson averaged -6% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -51%, '15-16 -28%, '23-24 +61%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −51%'15-16 −28%'23-24 +61%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−6%

Measured to date

+65%

Season total

130 cm

Vs predicted

+71%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Local Reports

0 reports
SnowSure™ Forecast Range

Daily Snowfall Forecast by Model

Black line = verified SnowSure™ blend (not a simple average). Weights update weekly from measured snowfall at SNOTEL stations and resort reports.

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Mt Dobson (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Hourly Forecast Detail

AM / PM / Night breakdown with wind and freezing level

NWP models refresh up to 4× daily · Last synced Aug 31, 11:05 AM

Hourly Forecast Detail
 
Today
-4 / -130.2cm0.3mm
Tue, Sep 1
-5 / -20
Wed, Sep 2
0 / -82.3cm3.3mm
Thu, Sep 3
1 / -14.2cm7.2mm
Fri, Sep 4
1 / -823.1cm34.2mm
Sat, Sep 5
-2 / -80.8cm1.2mm
PeriodAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight
Snow (cm)00.10.10000.31.10.90.21.12.96.90.915.3000.8
Precip (mm)00.20.10000.41.61.30.31.55.49.81.323.1001.2
Temp (°C)-5-5-8-15-5-11-5-1-4000-3-3-4-5-3-5
Wind (km/h)126104861111107111461314898
Gusts (km/h)513946283231455141294352636067383750

14-Day Snow Forecast by Model

Summit elevation (2030m)

ECMWF
56.3cm
GFS
31.3cm
GEM
0cm
JMA
2.6cm
ICON
1cm
Météo-Fr
13.5cm
SnowSure™
23.8cm

10-Day Forecast

Today

31

❄️

-4.1°

-13°

0.2cm

16 km/h

Tue

1

☁️

-5°

-19.6°

10 km/h

Wed

2

❄️

-0.4°

-7.7°

1.8cm

18 km/h

Thu

3

🌧️

1.2°

-1°

25 km/h

Fri

4

❄️

1.1°

-7.7°

9.4cm

27 km/h

Sat

5

❄️

-2.5°

-7.8°

0.6cm

10 km/h

Sun

6

❄️

-1.3°

-4.5°

25.5cm

24 km/h

Mon

7

🌧️

-4.9°

-12.1°

0.4cm

20 km/h

Tue

8

☁️

-4.3°

-14.5°

0.1cm

4 km/h

Wed

9

❄️

-2.7°

-10.8°

14.3cm

12 km/h

Summit elevation (2030m) • ECMWF model

Season vs Historic

Updated Mon, Aug 31, 11:05 AM UTC

130.1cm

Season Total

This Season to Date

-5%

vs 5-Year Avg

137cm avg by now

+65%

vs 30-Year Avg

79cm avg by now

137cm

5-Yr Avg by Now

This season is at 130.1 cm to date. The last completed season totaled ~130.2 cm. That's 5% below the 5-year average (137 cm). Versus the 30-year baseline: 65% above the 30-year average (79 cm).

Mt Dobson Snow History

Average annual snowfall is 119cm with an average of 40 snowfall days per season. The table below shows monthly averages across 31 seasons of archive data (modeled snowpack at mid-elevation).

Average monthly snowfall history
MonthAvg SnowfallSnowfall DaysAvg Base DepthMax Base DepthBiggest Snowfall
June22.8cm7 days11cm22cm10.7cm
July33.2cm9 days23cm35cm12.8cm
August22.7cm9 days27cm38cm9cm
September16.3cm7 days10cm24cm8.3cm
October16.9cm6 days2cm12cm8.4cm

Source: SnowSure archive · Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis at mid-elevation. Depth is modeled, not resort-reported.

Season at a Glance

Current season(2026)

Opened Jul 3, 2026

Scheduled close: Oct 4, 2026

Multi-season averages will appear once SnowSure has tracked more than one full season.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Mt Dobson, ERA5 season snowfall median was 74 cm (29 in), about 25% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

MJJ 2026 · ANOM +1.39°C

Analog season median

74 cm

5 El Niño winters · 25% below median

All-season median

98 cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent574 cm66 cm – 86 cm2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña478 cm70 cm – 131 cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21112 cm78 cm – 144 cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Best Months to Visit

August

Peak Season

July

Peak Season

September

Good

June

Good

Note: Based on typical ski season patterns for this region.

Back to All Destinations

Frequently asked questions about Mt Dobson

Where is Mt Dobson?
Mt Dobson is a ski resort in New Zealand.
How high is Mt Dobson?
Mt Dobson runs from a base elevation of 1,725 m (5,659 ft) to a summit of 2,030 m (6,660 ft), giving a vertical drop of 305 m (1,001 ft).
How big is Mt Dobson?
Mt Dobson has 988 acres (400 hectares) of skiable terrain, 14 marked runs and 4 lifts.
Which ski pass covers Mt Dobson?
Mt Dobson is on the No ski pass found. Access terms such as blackout dates and day limits vary by pass tier, so check the pass operator for the current season.
When is ski season at Mt Dobson?
Mt Dobson typically operates from July to October. Exact opening and closing dates shift each year with snowfall — check the resort's current season dates before booking.
How much snow does Mt Dobson get in a typical season?
Mt Dobson averages 100 inches / 254 cm of snowfall in a typical season. Any individual season can run well above or below that.
How will El Niño affect Mt Dobson in winter 2026?
El Niño Signal Rank: #299 of 488 SnowSure resorts · Tier D · strong-event signal -6% vs its own 30-yr average. In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mt Dobson averaged -6% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -51%, '15-16 -28%, '23-24 +61%. A pattern, not a promise.

More ski resorts in New Zealand

Browse all resorts →