Skip to main content
Thredbo ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

📷 Thredbo

Oceania

Thredbo

16

Limited

↘declining

Last Snowfall

--

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Reported by Thredbo

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

14-Day Forecast

19.9cm

Snow Depth

90cm

Resort reported (website)
🎿

Powder Days

13

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

3

2026 season

Updated: Aug 28, 7:05 AM•Weather at base: 1365m

Overview

Thredbo is a ski resort in Oceania, Australia. Today's SnowSure™ Score is 16/100 (Limited), snow base 90 cm (35.4 in). The 14-day ensemble forecast across seven weather models (ECMWF, GFS, GEM, JMA, ICON, Météo-France, Met Norway) calls for ~20 cm (7.9 in) of new snow. Conditions last updated 2026-08-28 07:05 UTC.

Resort Guide

Thredbo is a premier alpine resort located in the Snowy Mountains of New South Wales, Australia, offering over 480 hectares of terrain and the country’s longest ski runs. The resort features a vibrant village atmosphere, modern lift infrastructure, and a variety of accommodation, dining, and après-ski options. Signature experiences include Australia’s highest lifted point, extensive snowmaking, and year-round activities such as mountain biking and hiking, making Thredbo a standout destination for both winter and summer mountain adventures.

Resort Info

Summit2037m
Base1365m
Vertical672m
Lifts11/14
Runs19/53
Skiable Area1186.2 acres
Average snowfall74 inches / 188 cm
CountryAustralia
Visit Resort Website →

Season dates

OpenedJune 7, 2026
Projected closingOctober 5, 2026

Future dates are operator estimates and may change.

Ski passes

Ikon Pass

Ikon Pass

View resorts →

Access tiers change by season — confirm benefits on the pass operator's site.

Top Après Ski

The Alpine Bar – Renowned for its vibrant après-ski scene, The Alpine Bar at Thredbo offers live music, outdoor fire pits, and a lively atmosphere perfect for unwinding with friends after a day on the slopes, making it a favorite gathering spot for both locals and visitors alike.

SnowSure™ ScoreAI
16
Limited
↓declining

Limited conditions.

Thredbo currently has a snow depth of 90cm, providing decent coverage for skiing despite no new snow in the past week. The weather is partly cloudy with a cool temperature of 4°C, and the upcoming 14-day forecast suggests a potential for around 20cm of new snow.

AI-generated summary
↓

Depth

90cm depth — upper mountain may be better.

—

Recent

No new snow has fallen in the past week.

↓

Forecast

The 14-day forecast indicates an average of 20cm of new snow expected.

↓

Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is at 103cm, which is about 60% of the 5-year average of 172cm.

Data updated Fri, Aug 28, 07:05 AM UTC

Snow Summary

2037mECMWF Model

Updated Aug 28, 2026 at 7:05 AM

0cm
24h
20cm
Past 10d
14-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
—
Now28
—
S29
—
S30
—
M31
—
T1
—
W2
2.5
T3
Past
Today
Forecast

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Australia & Tasmania region

Current Conditions

Reported Fri, Aug 28, 07:05 AM UTC

Depth by source

every reading we have
  • Resort ReportedBase 90cm · Mid 90cm

The headline depth uses the most trusted available source. We show every reading so you can judge for yourself.

Freezing Level

2622m

☀️ Above summit - warm/wet conditions

Base

1365m

Temp

8.2°C

Wind

2.5km/h

Snow Depth

90cm

Resort reported (website)

14-Day Forecast

19.7cm

Mid-Mountain

1701m

Temp

--°C

Wind

3km/h

Snow Depth

90cm

Resort reported (website)

14-Day Forecast

19.9cm

Summit

2037m

Temp

3.8°C

Wind

2.5km/h

Snow Depth

--

Resort reported (website)

14-Day Forecast

14.6cm

Ops signals

  • ●Freezing level above summit — rain risk at lower elevations

Lifts Open

11/14
79%

open

Runs Open

19/53
36%

open

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Thredbo El Niño rank & forecast

Thredbo ranks #483 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −35% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

#483 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −35% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Thredbo averaged -35% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -67%, '15-16 -48%, '23-24 +11%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −67%'15-16 −48%'23-24 +11%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−35%

Measured to date

+9%

Season total

103 cm

Vs predicted

+44%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Live Conditions

Thredbo Webcams

All Webcams

Thredbo

Thredbo

Thredbo

Thredbo

Thredbo

Thredbo

Thredbo

Thredbo

Thredbo

9 webcams • Click to expand

Avalanche

No bulletin for this mountain

No official warning service is mapped for this resort’s country yet (v1 covers the United States, Canada and Switzerland). A bulletin may still be published locally.

SnowSure relays the official avalanche bulletin and does not issue avalanche forecasts. Read the full bulletin at the issuer’s link and make your own terrain decisions. Not a substitute for avalanche education, equipment, or local knowledge.

Local Reports

0 reports
SnowSure™ Forecast Range

Daily Snowfall Forecast by Model

Black line = verified SnowSure™ blend (not a simple average). Weights update weekly from measured snowfall at SNOTEL stations and resort reports.

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Thredbo (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Hourly Forecast Detail

AM / PM / Night breakdown with wind and freezing level

NWP models refresh up to 4× daily · Last synced Aug 28, 7:05 AM

Hourly Forecast Detail
 
Today
7 / -4
Sat, Aug 29
10 / -3
Sun, Aug 30
10 / 2
Mon, Aug 31
10 / 0
Tue, Sep 1
5 / -21.3cm2.8mm
Wed, Sep 2
5 / 01.9cm5.9mm
PeriodAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight
Snow (cm)000000000000001.30.401.5
Precip (mm)00000000000000.52.31.41.82.7
Temp (°C)06-2290592592150141
Wind (km/h)563371381493152014151514
Gusts (km/h)242617172312172712142814617662616469

14-Day Snow Forecast by Model

Summit elevation (2037m)

ECMWF
2.6cm
GFS
39.3cm
GEM
0cm
JMA
14.6cm
ICON
11.8cm
Météo-Fr
0cm
SnowSure™
19.9cm

10-Day Forecast

Today

28

⛅

6.7°

-4.2°

7 km/h

Sat

29

☀️

10.2°

-3.2°

8 km/h

Sun

30

☀️

10°

1.5°

10 km/h

Mon

31

☀️

10.2°

0.2°

10 km/h

Tue

1

🌧️

5.1°

-1.7°

21 km/h

Wed

2

🌧️

4.6°

0.4°

20 km/h

Thu

3

❄️

1.5°

-3°

2.5cm

19 km/h

Fri

4

🌧️

1.4°

-1.2°

0.1cm

19 km/h

Sat

5

🌧️

3°

-1.5°

12 km/h

Sun

6

⛅

5.9°

-4.5°

10 km/h

Summit elevation (2037m) • ECMWF model

Season vs Historic

Updated Fri, Aug 28, 07:05 AM UTC

102.6cm

Season Total

This Season to Date

-40%

vs 5-Year Avg

172cm avg by now

+8%

vs 30-Year Avg

95cm avg by now

172cm

5-Yr Avg by Now

This season is at 102.6 cm to date. The last completed season totaled ~103.2 cm. That's 40% below the 5-year average (172 cm). Versus the 30-year baseline: 9% above the 30-year average (95 cm).

Thredbo Snow History

Average annual snowfall is 127cm with an average of 47 snowfall days per season. The table below shows monthly averages across 31 seasons of archive data (modeled snowpack at mid-elevation).

Average monthly snowfall history
MonthAvg SnowfallSnowfall DaysAvg Base DepthMax Base DepthBiggest Snowfall
June25.5cm9 days3cm13cm9.3cm
July36.7cm12 days7cm17cm11.1cm
August35.5cm13 days6cm17cm8.6cm
September16.7cm7 days2cm9cm6.4cm
October7.3cm5 days0cm4cm3.9cm

Source: SnowSure archive · Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis at mid-elevation. Depth is modeled, not resort-reported.

Season at a Glance

Current season(2026)

Opened Jun 7, 2026

Scheduled close: Oct 5, 2026

Multi-season averages will appear once SnowSure has tracked more than one full season.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 5 past El Niño winters at Thredbo, ERA5 season snowfall median was 67 cm (26 in), about 24% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

MJJ 2026 · ANOM +1.39°C

Analog season median

67 cm

5 El Niño winters · 24% below median

All-season median

88 cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent567 cm59 cm – 74 cm2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña495 cm69 cm – 170 cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral2193 cm84 cm – 211 cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Best Months to Visit

August

Peak Season

July

Peak Season

September

Good

June

Good

Note: Based on typical ski season patterns for this region.

Back to All Destinations

Frequently asked questions about Thredbo

Where is Thredbo?
Thredbo is a ski resort in Australia.
How high is Thredbo?
Thredbo runs from a base elevation of 1,365 m (4,478 ft) to a summit of 2,037 m (6,683 ft), giving a vertical drop of 672 m (2,205 ft).
How big is Thredbo?
Thredbo has 1,186 acres (480 hectares) of skiable terrain, 53 marked runs and 14 lifts.
Which ski pass covers Thredbo?
Thredbo is on the Ikon Pass. Access terms such as blackout dates and day limits vary by pass tier, so check the pass operator for the current season.
When is ski season at Thredbo?
Thredbo typically operates from June to October. Exact opening and closing dates shift each year with snowfall — check the resort's current season dates before booking.
How much snow does Thredbo get in a typical season?
Thredbo averages 74 inches / 188 cm of snowfall in a typical season. Any individual season can run well above or below that.
How will El Niño affect Thredbo in winter 2026?
El Niño Signal Rank: #483 of 488 SnowSure resorts · Tier E · strong-event signal -35% vs its own 30-yr average. In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Thredbo averaged -35% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -67%, '15-16 -48%, '23-24 +11%. A pattern, not a promise.

More ski resorts in Australia

Browse all resorts →