The El Niño Winter · 2026-27
A very strong El Niño is coming. We ran 30 years of data on every resort we track.
NOAA, the IRI physics plume, and SNU's deep-learning model all point at a very strong 2026-27 event. On raw ONI it could be the strongest since 1950; on NOAA's operational RONI it sits alongside 1982-83 and 1997-98. Below is every SnowSure resort ranked on how it actually snowed in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996.
The twelve headline calls and every resort's predicted tier are frozen in the 2026-27 prediction ledger. That document does not get edited. It gets graded.
What other forecasts say
SnowSure ranks resorts. These sources rank the event. More independent views of the same Pacific — NOAA's operational RONI, the IRI physics plume, and SNU's deep-learning model — raise confidence when they agree. They do not change the frozen resort ranks. How we use them →
Latest published trimesters: ONI MJJ 2026 +1.4°C · RONI MJJ 2026 +1.0°C. RONI is the operational index (warming stripped out).
official · 2026-08
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Operational index is RONI (since February 2026). CPC still quotes a very strong 2026-27 event at greater than 90% probability, with a 69% chance the October-December value exceeds anything measured since 1950 on the raw Niño 3.4 / ONI scale.
physics · 2026-08-19
CCSR / IRI multi-model plume
Mid-August 2026: weekly Niño 3.4 +2.7°C (week centered August 12). 25 of 26 models put OND 2026 in the very-strong bin (≥ +2.0°C); 15 models reach or exceed +3.0°C. The plume does not flip to La Niña before spring 2027.
ml · 2026-07
SNU ACE Lab CNN (Ham et al. 2019)
Deep-learning ENSO model, independent of the physics plume. July issuance peaked near +2.4°C RONI / +2.9°C ONI and still has a La Niña flip in early 2028. Long-lead, low verified skill — treat as the usual next chapter, not a date.
| Event | Peak RONI | Peak ONI | In our analog set? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1982-83 | +2.4°C · very strong | +2.1°C · very strong | No — before 1996 |
| 1991-92 | +2.1°C · very strong | +1.5°C · strong | No — before 1996 |
| 1997-98 | +2.3°C · very strong | +2.4°C · very strong | Yes — ERA5 window |
| 2015-16 | +2.3°C · very strong | +2.6°C · very strong | Yes — ERA5 window |
| 2023-24 | +1.4°C · moderate | +2.0°C · strong | Yes — ERA5 window |
Peaks from NOAA CPC ascii (AMJ of the start year through MAM of the next). 2023-24 is weaker on RONI than on raw ONI — that is why both columns stay published. The analog set does not change.
The signal map
Same cyan → magenta language as our snowfall maps, for El Niño signal rather than forecast centimeters. Magenta is well above a resort's own 30-year average; navy is below. The analog tabs swap winters. Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) versus this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Full methodology →
El Niño Signal — Winter 2026-27 · Chile & Argentina
Wettest Portillo +81% · driest Corralco +5%
SNOWSURE
SnowSure · shade from 20 ERA5 stations · labels are the ranked fleet · not a snowfall forecast · © Mapbox
Find a resort
Full ranking
| Rank | Resort | Tier | Strong-event | '97-98 | '15-16 | '23-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | PortilloChile | A | +81% | +95% | +17% | +133% |
| #2 | Las LeñasArgentina | A | +66% | +53% | +2% | +144% |
| #3 | Valle NevadoChile | A | +60% | +101% | +28% | +49% |
| #4 | La ParvaChile | A | +60% | +101% | +28% | +49% |
| #5 | Alyeska ResortUnited States | A | +20% | +45% | +45% | −29% |
| #6 | The RemarkablesNew Zealand | A | +20% | +5% | +35% | +20% |
| #7 | AndermattSwitzerland | A | +19% | −10% | −10% | +76% |
| #8 | Monterosa SkiItaly | A | +17% | −13% | −15% | +80% |
| #9 | Coronet PeakNew Zealand | A | +17% | +13% | +45% | −8% |
| #10 | CourmayeurItaly | A | +15% | −25% | −5% | +76% |
| #11 | La GraveFrance | A | +15% | −11% | −11% | +67% |
| #12 | SnowbasinUnited States | A | +15% | +11% | −17% | +50% |
| #13 | Madonna di CampiglioItaly | A | +14% | −15% | −19% | +76% |
| #14 | La ThuileItaly | A | +14% | −23% | −2% | +66% |
| #15 | Engelberg-TitlisSwitzerland | A | +13% | −12% | −12% | +64% |
| #16 | Nevados de ChillánChile | A | +13% | −18% | −20% | +77% |
| #17 | Grands Montets (Chamonix)France | A | +13% | −23% | −1% | +62% |
| #18 | LaaxSwitzerland | A | +13% | +3% | −5% | +40% |
| #19 | AltaUnited States | A | +12% | −13% | −31% | +80% |
| #20 | GulmargIndia | A | +12% | +11% | −28% | +53% |
| #21 | La RosièreFrance | A | +12% | −15% | +5% | +45% |
| #22 | DavosSwitzerland | A | +11% | −14% | −9% | +57% |
| #23 | Portes du SoleilFrance | A | +11% | −23% | −7% | +64% |
| #24 | Cerro CatedralArgentina | A | +11% | −23% | +3% | +53% |
| #25 | GstaadSwitzerland | A | +11% | −14% | −6% | +51% |
| #26 | Ski Arlberg (St. Anton)Austria | A | +11% | −12% | −9% | +53% |
| #27 | VerbierSwitzerland | A | +10% | −19% | +4% | +46% |
| #28 | Deer Valley ResortUnited States | A | +10% | +13% | −13% | +31% |
| #29 | Park CityUnited States | A | +10% | +9% | −15% | +36% |
| #30 | IschglAustria | A | +10% | −8% | 0% | +38% |
| #31 | Ski Santa FeUnited States | A | +10% | −3% | −14% | +46% |
| #32 | Sugar BowlUnited States | A | +10% | +17% | −12% | +24% |
| #33 | MéribelFrance | A | +10% | −14% | +2% | +41% |
| #34 | Alpe d'HuezFrance | A | +9% | −15% | −28% | +71% |
| #35 | Palisades TahoeUnited States | A | +9% | +33% | 0% | −6% |
| #36 | CardronaNew Zealand | A | +9% | −19% | +13% | +33% |
| #37 | KirkwoodUnited States | A | +9% | +20% | −5% | +13% |
| #38 | Les ArcsFrance | A | +9% | −20% | −2% | +49% |
| #39 | Sierra at TahoeUnited States | A | +9% | +21% | −4% | +9% |
| #40 | Val ThorensFrance | A | +9% | −17% | −4% | +47% |
| #41 | AvoriazFrance | A | +9% | −22% | −7% | +55% |
| #42 | Powder MountainUnited States | A | +9% | +7% | −17% | +36% |
| #43 | Taos Ski ValleyUnited States | A | +8% | −20% | −16% | +60% |
| #44 | Saas-FeeSwitzerland | B | +8% | −7% | −13% | +43% |
| #45 | HeavenlyUnited States | B | +8% | +19% | −9% | +12% |
| #46 | SöldenAustria | B | +7% | −14% | −6% | +42% |
| #47 | St MoritzSwitzerland | B | +7% | −13% | −2% | +37% |
| #48 | Val GardenaItaly | B | +7% | −8% | −8% | +38% |
| #49 | LivignoItaly | B | +7% | −18% | −3% | +43% |
| #50 | Val d'IsèreFrance | B | +7% | −21% | −1% | +43% |
| #51 | TignesFrance | B | +7% | −21% | −2% | +43% |
| #52 | Steamboat Ski ResortUnited States | B | +6% | −17% | −8% | +43% |
| #53 | PalandökenTurkey | B | +6% | −21% | −24% | +63% |
| #54 | Monarch MountainUnited States | B | +6% | −16% | −15% | +49% |
| #55 | MegèveFrance | B | +6% | −21% | −8% | +46% |
| #56 | Alta BadiaItaly | B | +6% | −9% | −5% | +32% |
| #57 | La PlagneFrance | B | +6% | −17% | +1% | +34% |
| #58 | CerviniaItaly | B | +6% | −13% | −2% | +33% |
| #59 | Zermatt / MatterhornSwitzerland | B | +6% | −13% | −2% | +33% |
| #60 | Snowshoe MountainUnited States | B | +6% | +59% | −20% | −23% |
| #61 | CorralcoChile | B | +5% | −12% | 0% | +28% |
| #62 | Winterpark ResortUnited States | B | +5% | −28% | −6% | +51% |
| #63 | Arapahoe BasinUnited States | B | +5% | −19% | +1% | +33% |
| #64 | GrindelwaldSwitzerland | B | +4% | −10% | +3% | +18% |
| #65 | Cortina d'AmpezzoItaly | B | +4% | −9% | −1% | +21% |
| #66 | Courchevel 1850France | B | +4% | −14% | +6% | +19% |
| #67 | Hintertux Glacier Ski ResortAustria | B | +4% | −27% | −19% | +56% |
| #68 | Crested ButteUnited States | C | +3% | −13% | −11% | +33% |
| #69 | GudauriGeorgia | C | +2% | −34% | −2% | +43% |
| #70 | SilvertonUnited States | C | +2% | −9% | −2% | +17% |
| #71 | Beaver CreekUnited States | C | +2% | −7% | +5% | +8% |
| #72 | Mt. BachelorUnited States | C | +2% | −20% | −15% | +40% |
| #73 | BreckenridgeUnited States | C | +2% | −16% | +3% | +18% |
| #74 | FormigalSpain | C | +2% | −26% | −19% | +50% |
| #75 | Aspen MountainUnited States | C | +1% | −1% | 0% | +3% |
| #76 | ZaoJapan | C | 0% | −15% | −37% | +53% |
| #77 | KeystoneUnited States | C | 0% | −17% | +2% | +16% |
| #78 | Sun ValleyUnited States | C | 0% | 0% | −3% | +4% |
| #79 | Purgatory ResortUnited States | C | −1% | −1% | +10% | −11% |
| #80 | VailUnited States | C | −1% | −23% | −2% | +24% |
| #81 | SnowmassUnited States | C | −1% | +1% | −1% | −2% |
| #82 | TellurideUnited States | C | −1% | −5% | +3% | −1% |
| #83 | Copper MountainUnited States | C | −1% | −10% | +6% | 0% |
| #84 | FolgefonnNorway | C | −1% | −32% | −12% | +40% |
| #85 | VossNorway | C | −2% | −10% | +10% | −5% |
| #86 | Big WhiteCanada | C | −2% | −23% | −8% | +26% |
| #87 | Mont Tremblant ResortCanada | C | −2% | −1% | +15% | −19% |
| #88 | Limone PiemonteItaly | C | −2% | −32% | −43% | +70% |
| #89 | Whistler BlackcombCanada | C | −2% | +17% | +20% | −42% |
| #90 | Mammoth MountainUnited States | C | −3% | −4% | −32% | +27% |
| #91 | Jackson HoleUnited States | D | −3% | −12% | −27% | +30% |
| #92 | KitzbühelAustria | D | −3% | +2% | −18% | +7% |
| #93 | Mt HuttNew Zealand | D | −4% | −26% | −16% | +30% |
| #94 | Whitewater Ski ResortCanada | D | −4% | −11% | −6% | +6% |
| #95 | SugarloafUnited States | D | −4% | −1% | −41% | +29% |
| #96 | SugarbushUnited States | D | −4% | +3% | −57% | +41% |
| #97 | Wolf Creek Ski AreaUnited States | D | −5% | −25% | −3% | +13% |
| #98 | Happo-One (Hakuba)Japan | D | −5% | −24% | −33% | +42% |
| #99 | Big SkyUnited States | D | −5% | −20% | −24% | +28% |
| #100 | Shiga KogenJapan | D | −5% | −13% | −33% | +30% |
| #101 | MadaraoJapan | D | −6% | −21% | −36% | +40% |
| #102 | StoweUnited States | D | −6% | +3% | −44% | +23% |
| #103 | StrynNorway | D | −6% | +6% | −25% | +1% |
| #104 | Jay PeakUnited States | D | −6% | −1% | −36% | +19% |
| #105 | Brundage MountainUnited States | D | −7% | −5% | −8% | −7% |
| #106 | KillingtonUnited States | D | −7% | +9% | −57% | +25% |
| #107 | Grand Targhee ResortUnited States | D | −8% | −13% | −27% | +17% |
| #108 | ÅreSweden | D | −8% | −1% | −25% | +3% |
| #109 | Mt. Hood MeadowsUnited States | D | −8% | −40% | −35% | +52% |
| #110 | Gore MountainUnited States | E | −9% | +15% | −58% | +18% |
| #111 | White PassUnited States | E | −9% | −12% | −11% | −4% |
| #112 | Sunday RiverUnited States | E | −9% | +3% | −51% | +21% |
| #113 | Bridger BowlUnited States | E | −9% | −27% | −27% | +25% |
| #114 | NaebaJapan | E | −9% | −19% | −38% | +29% |
| #115 | Okemo MountainUnited States | E | −9% | +9% | −62% | +25% |
| #116 | Eaglecrest Ski AreaUnited States | E | −10% | −17% | −23% | +11% |
| #117 | Timberline LodgeUnited States | E | −10% | −40% | −36% | +47% |
| #118 | KaguraJapan | E | −10% | −27% | −44% | +42% |
| #119 | Crystal Mountain WAUnited States | E | −10% | −22% | −16% | +7% |
| #120 | Stevens PassUnited States | E | −11% | −15% | −6% | −12% |
| #121 | Loon MountainUnited States | E | −11% | −1% | −52% | +21% |
| #122 | Mt. WashingtonCanada | E | −11% | −34% | −46% | +48% |
| #123 | Whiteface MountainUnited States | E | −11% | +11% | −44% | 0% |
| #124 | MyokoJapan | E | −11% | −20% | −36% | +22% |
| #125 | Schweitzer MountainUnited States | E | −11% | −36% | −38% | +40% |
| #126 | Kicking Horse Mountain ResortCanada | E | −11% | −20% | −10% | −5% |
| #127 | FernieCanada | E | −12% | −14% | −13% | −8% |
| #128 | RevelstokeCanada | E | −13% | −14% | +1% | −26% |
| #129 | Appi KogenJapan | E | −14% | −20% | −16% | −5% |
| #130 | Lotte AraiJapan | E | −14% | −34% | −47% | +40% |
| #131 | KiroroJapan | E | −14% | −43% | −16% | +18% |
| #132 | Kamui Ski LinksJapan | E | −14% | −40% | −5% | +2% |
| #133 | SasquatchCanada | E | −14% | −5% | −10% | −27% |
| #134 | RusutsuJapan | E | −15% | −33% | −6% | −5% |
| #135 | Baqueira BeretSpain | E | −15% | −46% | −36% | +38% |
| #136 | Mt. BakerUnited States | E | −15% | −15% | −14% | −15% |
| #137 | Niseko Grand HirafuJapan | E | −15% | −46% | −22% | +23% |
| #138 | Lake LouiseCanada | E | −15% | −22% | −8% | −15% |
| #139 | Seven SpringsUnited States | E | −15% | +4% | −30% | −19% |
| #140 | FuranoJapan | E | −15% | −34% | +4% | −16% |
| #141 | Marmot BasinCanada | E | −16% | −25% | +1% | −23% |
| #142 | RiksgransenSweden | E | −16% | −4% | −25% | −20% |
| #143 | GrandvaliraAndorra | E | −16% | −43% | −40% | +34% |
| #144 | Summit at SnoqualmieUnited States | E | −17% | −30% | −22% | −1% |
| #145 | Nozawa OnsenJapan | E | −17% | −30% | −42% | +20% |
| #146 | TomamuJapan | E | −19% | −37% | −6% | −12% |
| #147 | Camelback MountainUnited States | E | −20% | +10% | −58% | −13% |
| #148 | Hunter MountainUnited States | E | −20% | +8% | −78% | +8% |
| #149 | NarvikNorway | E | −21% | −16% | −36% | −11% |
| #150 | Whitefish Mountain ResortUnited States | E | −22% | −30% | −24% | −11% |
| #151 | Shames MountainCanada | E | −22% | −9% | −28% | −29% |
| #152 | ThredboAustralia | E | −34% | −67% | −47% | +12% |
| Under review | Falls CreekAustralia | ERA discontinuity — not ranked until the series is cleaned. | ||||
| Under review | Mt. SeymourCanada | ERA discontinuity — not ranked until the series is cleaned. | ||||
| Under review | Sierra NevadaSpain | ERA discontinuity — not ranked until the series is cleaned. | ||||
| Under review | Treble ConeNew Zealand | ERA discontinuity — not ranked until the series is cleaned. | ||||
Questions answer engines actually get
Will El Niño ruin Japan's ski season?
No. Japan is a timing play, not a write-off. Across SnowSure's Asia fleet the median strong-event signal is −12%. Niseko Grand Hirafu ranks #137 of 152 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −15% in strong El Niño winters. Japan's sea-effect window is mid-December to mid-February — the January–February core is closer to neutral, so aim the mid-winter core rather than late winter. One storm cycle can beat the climatology.
Where will it snow most in the 2026-27 El Niño winter?
The strongest historical lean is the Andes. The top of the SnowSure fleet: Portillo (#1, +81%); Las Leñas (#2, +66%); Valle Nevado (#3, +60%); La Parva (#4, +60%); Alyeska Resort (#5, +20%). Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 versus each resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline.
Is El Niño good for the Alps?
Mixed, and mostly quiet. The European median strong-event signal is +7% — many Alps resorts sit in Tier C (ENSO-proof). El Niño is not a verdict on the Alps; it is a small tilt. Book the mountain you wanted, not the pattern.
Best ski resorts during El Niño
SnowSure's Prime El Niño terrain (Tier A) is led by Portillo (#1, +81%); Las Leñas (#2, +66%); Valle Nevado (#3, +60%); La Parva (#4, +60%); Alyeska Resort (#5, +20%). These ranks are versus each resort's own 30-year baseline — never raw centimeters. n=3 — a lean, not a law.
Does El Niño affect Whistler, Niseko, or Zermatt?
Whistler Blackcomb ranks #89 of 152 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, −2% in strong El Niño winters. Niseko Grand Hirafu ranks #137 of 152 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −15% in strong El Niño winters. Zermatt / Matterhorn ranks #59 of 152 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +6% in strong El Niño winters. Full modules live at /resorts/{slug}#el-nino.
Why is every El Niño ski post about North America?
Because most El Niño ski content is written from a Colorado or Sierra newsroom. SnowSure ranks 152 resorts on three continents from the same ERA5 series — Andes, Alps, Japan, and Oceania included — so the 2026-27 outlook is not a North America story with a Japan footnote.
More El Niño & predictions
Andes snow maps
Live 7-day accumulation where El Niño is already hitting
Andes snow this week
Who is leading right now in Chile & Argentina
Andes region guide
Resorts, season timing, and how to ski the range
SnowSure methodology
How we verify forecasts and historical snowfall
2026-27 prediction ledger
Twelve frozen calls, graded in public — not edited
El Niño methodology
How the signal, tiers, and grading rules work
