El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
La Parva El Niño rank & forecast
La Parva ranks #4 of 152 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +60% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).
Strong-event signal: +60% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), La Parva averaged +60% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026, history says this is the winter to book La Parva with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 +101%, '15-16 +28%, '23-24 +49%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.
In-season scorecard
Predicted signal
+60%
Measured to date
+63%
Season total
370 cm
Vs predicted
+3%
Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.






















