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Tier B — Favored

North America

Projected to open November 20, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, April · last season + 30-yr record

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Projected to open Nov 20

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 13

1d ago

Past 24 Hours

2cm

Past 48 Hours

2cm

Past 10 Days

2cm

7-Day Forecast

15cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 14, 12:01 AM•Weather at base: 2,103m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Projected to open Nov 20

Steamboat Ski Resort is projected to open November 20, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1February51cm avg · last season 34.4
#2January51cm avg
#3April45cm avg · last season 30.6

Best weeks to book

#1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 34.4
#2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 35.7
#3 8 Mar – 14 Mar · last season 27.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,853m · mid-upper

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr UKMO NBM

Updated Oct 14, 2026 at 12:01 AM

2cm

24h

15cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now13

W14

T15

—

F16

—

S17

—

S18

—

M19

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

2cm

24h

15cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

2cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYOct 13

WedOct 14

ThuOct 15

—

FriOct 16

—

SatOct 17

—

SunOct 18

—

MonOct 19

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend · mid-upper forecast point

Hourly Forecast

	13 Tue 7° / -2°			14 Wed 4° / -3°			15 Thu 0° / -10°			16 Fri 7° / -11°			17 Sat 8° / -2°			18 Sun 6° / -2°			19 Mon 6° / -2°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	20 Tue	21 Wed	22 Thu	23 Fri	24 Sat	25 Sun	26 Mon
Conditions	❄️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	❄️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☁️	☀️	🌤️	🌤️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	❄️	❄️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	❄️
	snow	light drizzle	light drizzle	snow	light snow	light drizzle	snow	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	cloudy	clear	mostly clear	mostly clear	mostly clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	light snow	heavy snow	clear	mostly clear	clear	snow
Summit3,222 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	6°	1°	0°	1°	-1°	-3°	-1°	-6°	-4°	6°	-6°	2°	7°	-1°	1°	5°	0°	2°	5°	1°	4°	3°	-5°	-3°	1°	4°	-1°
Feels like°C	-3°	1°	-2°	-3°	-2°	-5°	-6°	-5°	-10°	-8°	3°	-10°	-2°	3°	-4°	-3°	1°	-3°	-1°	3°	-2°	0°	-1°	-11°	-6°	-2°	0°	-5°
Snowcm	3.3	·	2.5	3.4	2.2	5.2	3.7	0.2	7	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	3.2	9.7	·	·	·	5.5
Precipmm	4.9	0.7	4.9	7.2	6.4	7.7	5.3	0.3	7.0	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	5.5	10.7	·	·	·	8.2
Windkm/h	5	15	3	8	7	6	4	11	6	7	2	5	1	4	1	2	9	2	3	4	1	15	9	21	4	5	6	12
Mid-mountain2,663 mModeled
Temp°C	4°	10°	4°	4°	5°	2°	1°	3°	-2°	0°	9°	-2°	6°	10°	3°	4°	8°	3°	5°	9°	5°	8°	6°	-2°	1°	5°	7°	3°
Feels like°C	1°	5°	2°	1°	2°	0°	-2°	-1°	-6°	-4°	6°	-6°	2°	7°	0°	1°	5°	1°	3°	7°	2°	4°	3°	-7°	-2°	2°	4°	-0°
Snowcm	1.8	·	0.1	2	0.8	2.2	3.7	0.2	6	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	2.5	7.5	·	·	·	4.9
Precipmm	4.9	0.7	4.9	7.2	6.4	7.7	5.3	0.3	7.0	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	5.5	10.7	·	·	·	8.2
Windkm/h	5	15	3	8	7	6	4	11	6	7	2	5	1	4	1	2	9	2	3	4	1	15	9	21	4	5	6	12
Base2,103 mModeled
Temp°C	7°	13°	8°	7°	8°	6°	4°	7°	1°	3°	13°	1°	9°	14°	7°	8°	12°	7°	9°	13°	8°	12°	10°	2°	5°	8°	11°	6°
Feels like°C	5°	9°	7°	5°	7°	4°	2°	3°	-2°	0°	10°	-2°	6°	11°	4°	5°	9°	5°	7°	11°	6°	8°	7°	-3°	2°	6°	8°	4°
Snowcm	1.8	·	0.1	2	0.8	2.2	3.7	0.2	4.8	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	2.2	7.5	·	·	·	4.9
Precipmm	4.9	0.7	4.9	7.2	6.4	7.7	5.3	0.3	7.0	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	5.5	10.7	·	·	·	8.2
Windkm/h	5	15	3	8	7	6	4	11	6	7	2	5	1	4	1	2	9	2	3	4	1	15	9	21	4	5	6	12
Humidity%	87	47	90	92	90	99	87	55	86	51	25	61	32	24	39	54	55	62	64	55	69	54	62	80	57	57	53	83
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,900	3,600	3,700	3,550	2,800	2,800	3,000
Sunhours																						9.2	9.2	8.1	9	9	9	9

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Steamboat Ski Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Steamboat Ski Resort (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Steamboat Ski Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Steamboat Ski Resort ranks #132 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +6% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#132 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +6% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Steamboat Ski Resort averaged +6% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -17%, '15-16 -7%, '23-24 +43%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −17%'15-16 −8%'23-24 +43%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Steamboat Ski Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 302 cm (119 in), about 3% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

302cm

10 El Niño winters · 3% below median

All-season median

313cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	302cm	280cm – 373cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	314cm	292cm – 407cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	354cm	249cm – 395cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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