Late-September North Atlantic System
1 resort in the path, 2cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one.
+2CM
Predicted at Stryn
0–8cm, models far apart
Storm
Sep 22–26
1 resort in the path
Peak
Sep 24
2cm at Stryn
Predicted
2cm
Stryn · 0–8cm, models far apart
Confidence
Likely
Updated
Sep 14, 06:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Sep 14, 06:30 UTC
Current prediction: 0–8cm for Stryn between 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-26, 2cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-09-24 at 2cm. Stryn is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. On day one we said 51cm for Stryn; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 1·Sep 14·Likely·51cmFirst prediction
Late-September system: 51cm for Stryn, range 0–87.2cm
The window from September 22 to September 26 is projected to bring 51cm of snow to Stryn, with a range of 0–87.2cm. The most significant snowfall is expected on September 23, with a forecasted total of 17.1cm. This pattern suggests a favorable setup for snowfall across the Alps and wider Europe, driven by a North Atlantic system that is likely to deliver moisture and colder temperatures during this period. Stryn stands to benefit the most from this event, while other resorts may see less favorable conditions, potentially missing out on substantial accumulations. Changes in the forecast could arise from shifts in the system's trajectory or intensity, which would impact snowfall totals and distribution.
Window Sep 22–26 · Stryn
Snow by day
Sep 21 – Sep 27, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Strynbase 185 m · summit 1,350 m
2cm snow26mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,350 m · rain on the whole mountain
linem
/ raincm · mm
Mon
Sep 21
Mixed
Tue
Sep 22
Rain
Wed
Sep 23
Rain
Thu
Sep 24
Mixed
Fri
Sep 25
Rain
Sat
Sep 26
Rain
Sun
Sep 27
Rain
rain low, snow high Thu · rain Tue, Wed, Fri, Sat
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-09-14 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-09-14 with 51cm forecast at Stryn.
