Late-September North Atlantic System
1 resort in the path, 0cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one.
+0CM
Predicted at Stryn
0–1cm, models far apart
Storm
Sep 29–Oct 1
1 resort in the path
Peak
Oct 1
0cm at Stryn
Predicted
0cm
Stryn · 0–1cm, models far apart
Confidence
Likely
Updated
Sep 18, 12:32 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Sep 18, 12:32 UTC
Current prediction: 0–1cm for Stryn between 2026-09-29 and 2026-10-01, 0cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-10-01 at 0cm. Stryn is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. On day one we said 31cm for Stryn; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 1·Sep 18·Likely·31cmFirst prediction
Confidence builds: 31.2cm for Stryn Sep 29–Oct 1
The prediction for the late-September North Atlantic system indicates 31.2cm for Stryn over the window, with a range of 10.4–52.8cm. The most significant snowfall is expected on 2026-09-30, with a likely total of 12.9cm. This pattern suggests favorable conditions for snowfall across the Alps and wider Europe, driven by a developing system that could enhance precipitation in the region. Stryn stands to benefit the most from this event, while other resorts may see less impact based on current data. Should atmospheric conditions shift or models indicate a different trajectory, we may need to adjust these totals accordingly.
Window Sep 29–Oct 1 · Stryn
Snow by day
Sep 28 – Oct 2, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Strynbase 185 m · summit 1,350 m
0cm snow19mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,350 m · rain on the whole mountain
linem
/ raincm · mm
Mon
Sep 28
Rain
Tue
Sep 29
Rain
Wed
Sep 30
Rain
Thu
Oct 1
Rain
Fri
Oct 2
Rain
rain Tue, Wed, Thu
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-09-18 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-09-18 with 31cm forecast at Stryn.
