Mid-September Tasman System
1 resort in the path, 30cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely.
+30CM
Predicted at Tūroa
Storm
Sep 11–13
1 resort in the path
Peak
Sep 13
19cm at Tūroa
Predicted
30cm
Tūroa
Confidence
Watching
Updated
Sep 8, 06:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Sep 8, 06:30 UTC
A storm watch has been issued for the Mid-September Tasman System due to a developing Pacific weather pattern that is expected to bring significant snowfall to the region. Tūroa is projected to receive 30.1cm of snow over the window from September 11 to September 13, with the largest single day forecasted at 19.2cm and three models showing agreement on this average. Other resorts may not see similar impacts, potentially missing out on substantial snowfall. A tightening of model agreement or a shift in the timing of the storm could change this forecast, potentially increasing snowfall amounts or affecting other resorts.
Snow by day
Sep 10 – Sep 14, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Tūroabase 1,600 m · summit 2,322 m
—cm snow
no daily data
No daily series on file for these resorts yet.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-09-08 06:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-09-03 with 30cm forecast at Tūroa.
