Mid-September Tasman System
4 resorts in the path, 43cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely; likely at 1 of 4 resorts.
+43CM
Predicted at Temple Basin
Storm
Sep 15–19
4 resorts in the path
Peak
Sep 17
32cm at Temple Basin
Predicted
43cm
Temple Basin
Confidence
Watching
Likely at 1 of 4 resorts
Updated
Sep 12, 18:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Sep 12, 18:30 UTC
We are watching a significant system for New Zealand and Australia between 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-19. Temple Basin carries the biggest signal at 43.2cm over 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-19. 4 resorts are in the path; totals fall off away from the core. The call changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher.
Snow by day
Sep 14 – Sep 20, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Temple Basinbase 1,326 m · summit 1,753 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Broken Riverbase 1,425 m · summit 1,820 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Craigieburnbase 1,310 m · summit 1,811 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Mt Olympusbase 1,430 m · summit 1,880 m
—cm snow
no daily data
No daily series on file for these resorts yet.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
The prediction is what we said before the snow. The receipt is what actually fell.
What fell
Every watch ends in a public receipt, hit or miss.
- Temple BasinWe predicted 43cm. 1cm fell.Miss
Last updated 2026-09-12 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-09-11 with 31cm forecast at Temple Basin.
