5 resorts in the path, 98cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one.
We are watching a northwest flow running at up to 21 km/h at 700mb into the Andes, with the surface low down to 1006 hPa between 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-08. It is carrying moisture up to 10.6 kg/m², with mid-level temperatures of -6.5°C to 2.3°C through the mountains. La Parva carries the biggest signal at 85.8cm across the window, with 5.3 models contributing on average. 5 resorts are in the path; totals fall off away from the core. At La Parva, Valle Nevado and Portillo the freezing level on the snow days sits between base and summit: snow on the upper mountain, rain possible low down. At Lagunillas and Penitentes the freezing level on the snow days sits above the summit, so treat those totals with caution. The call changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher.
The prediction
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
La Parva — 51–160cm, most likely 98cm, biggest day 54cm on 6 Oct (strengthening)
Valle Nevado — 51–161cm, most likely 98cm, biggest day 54cm on 6 Oct (strengthening)
Portillo — 47–125cm, most likely 87cm, biggest day 49cm on 6 Oct (on track)
Lagunillas — 31–163cm, most likely 86cm, biggest day 49cm on 6 Oct (strengthening)
Penitentes — 26–122cm, most likely 63cm, biggest day 38cm on 6 Oct (on track)
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