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Montgenèvre ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Europe

Montgenèvre Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: March, February, January · last season + 30-yr record

Closed for the season — closed April 19

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Sep 22, 5:04 PM•Weather at base: 1,860m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Closed for the season

Montgenèvre is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: March, February, January. Best weeks: 20 Mar–25 Mar, 27 Mar–2 Apr, 3 Apr–9 Apr.NovDec3Jan2Feb1MarAprOpens 28 NovCloses 19 Apr

March

#1 to book

54cm avg · scored 31.5

February

#2 to book

46cm avg

January

#3 to book

57cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #120 Mar – 25 Marscored 30.7
  2. #227 Mar – 2 Aprscored 32.7
  3. #33 Apr – 9 Aprscored 16.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,799m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 5:04 PM

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24h
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Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
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Now22
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W23
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T24
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F25
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S26
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S27
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M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
17° / -2°
23 Wed
13° / 1°
24 Thu
14° / -2°
25 Fri
15° / -1°
26 Sat
16° / -0°
27 Sun
15° / -0°
28 Mon
12° / 0°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions🌤️☀️☀️🌤️☀️☁️☀️☁️☀️⛅⛅☁️☀️🌤️☀️☀️☁️☀️⛅⛅⛅
mostly clearclearclearmostly clearclearcloudyclearcloudyclearsome cloudssome cloudscloudyclearmostly clearclearclearcloudyclearsome cloudssome cloudssome clouds
Summit2,799 mModeled
Temp°C3°15°4°4°12°4°3°14°3°3°14°4°4°15°5°4°14°5°2°11°4°
Feels like°C0°12°1°1°8°1°0°9°0°0°10°1°1°11°2°0°10°2°0°7°2°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····················
Windkm/h18331342133273282151152
Mid-mountain2,330 mModeled
Temp°C6°19°7°7°15°7°6°17°6°6°17°7°7°18°8°7°17°8°5°14°7°
Feels like°C3°15°5°5°12°5°3°12°3°3°14°5°4°14°5°4°13°5°3°11°5°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····················
Windkm/h18331342133273282151152
Base1,860 mModeled
Temp°C9°22°10°10°18°10°9°20°9°9°20°10°10°21°11°10°20°11°8°17°10°
Feels like°C7°19°9°9°15°8°6°15°7°7°17°8°7°17°8°7°17°8°7°14°9°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····················
Windkm/h18331342133273282151152
Humidity%681972802873531361521858471044441949812972
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Montgenèvre, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Montgenèvre (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Montgenèvre El Niño rank & forecast

Montgenèvre ranks #53 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +11% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#53 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +11% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Montgenèvre averaged +11% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Montgenèvre sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -11%, '15-16 +4%, '23-24 +42%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −11%'15-16 +4%'23-24 +42%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Montgenèvre, ERA5 season snowfall median was 394 cm (155 in), about 2% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

394cm

10 El Niño winters · 2% above median

All-season median

385cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10394cm365cm – 471cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12381cm348cm – 480cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8442cm367cm – 507cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Montgenèvre

How much snow is Montgenèvre getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Montgenèvre over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Montgenèvre?
The full 14-day forecast for Montgenèvre — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Montgenèvre?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.