Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

El Niño — Under review

Africa

Permanently closed

Best months to book: July, June, August · 30-yr snow record

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Permanently closed

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Jul 2

Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Powder Days

2026 season

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Bluebird Days

2026 season

Updated: Jul 14, 11:02 AM•Weather at base: 2,720m

SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book

Permanently closed

Tiffindell is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

July

#1 to book

12cm avg

June

#2 to book

11cm avg

August

#3 to book

9cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,900m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Jul 14, 2026 at 11:02 AM · may be delayed

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7-Day Forecast

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Now22

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T24

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F25

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S26

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S27

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M28

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

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Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

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Previous10 Days

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TODAYSep 22

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WedSep 23

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SatSep 26

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SunSep 27

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MonSep 28

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

Unlock with Pro

Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Tiffindell, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Tiffindell (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Southern Africa region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Tiffindell El Niño rank & forecast

Tiffindell is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.

Under review

This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Tiffindell, ERA5 season snowfall median was 67 cm (26 in), about 109% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

67cm

6 El Niño winters · 109% above median

All-season median

32cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	67cm	40cm – 72cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	22cm	18cm – 31cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	31cm	18cm – 54cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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