Mid-November North Atlantic System

1. Day 5·Nov 5·Likely·46cm(-19)

   Confidence likely: 45.5cm for Stranda Nov 11–14

   Day 5: the top total for Stranda is down 19.3cm since the previous entry, but the window has moved one day earlier. We now expect snowfall totals of 45.5cm for Stranda over the window from November 11 to November 14, with the biggest day forecasted for November 12 at 16.9cm. Confidence remains likely, and we are on track with this trend. As we approach the event, we will continue to monitor the models for any changes in timing or totals. The first day of the window is projected to bring 34.7cm, so conditions should be favorable for early season skiing.

   Window Nov 11–14 · Stranda

2. Day 4·Nov 4·Likely·65cm(+22)

   Confidence likely: 64.8cm for Stranda Nov 12–16

   Day 4: totals up 21.5cm at Stranda and the window held. The forecast now indicates a window from November 12 to November 16, with Stranda expected to receive 64.8cm of snow during this period, peaking at 23.9cm on November 14. Confidence in this forecast has shifted to likely as models align on the expected totals. We will continue to monitor conditions closely as we approach the event. While Stranda remains the focus, we are not seeing significant totals for other resorts at this time.

   Window Nov 12–16 · Stranda

3. Day 3·Nov 3·Watching·43cm(+12)

   Confidence watching: 43.3cm for Stranda Nov 11–15

   Day 3: totals up 11.9cm since the previous entry and the window has slid a day later. We are now looking at a window from November 11 to November 15, with Stranda leading the forecast at 43.3cm, followed by Alpe d'Huez at 34.7cm and Narvik at 31.8cm. Stranda is showing a significant potential with a range of 10.2–122.2cm, while Alpe d'Huez and Narvik have more limited totals. We will continue to monitor the confidence levels, which remain in a watching state, as trends evolve.

   Window Nov 11–15 · Stranda

4. Day 2·Nov 2·Watching·31cm(-3)

   Confidence watching: 31.4cm for Alpe d'Huez Nov 10–12

   Day 2: the top total is down 3.3cm since the previous entry, and the window has moved a day earlier. We now predict a window from November 10 to November 12, with Alpe d'Huez expecting 31.4cm of snow, ranging from 9.6 to 47.8cm. The biggest day is forecasted for November 11, with 17.6cm expected. Confidence is currently categorized as watching, indicating that we need to monitor the models closely as trends appear delayed. We will keep an eye on how the forecasts evolve in the coming days.

   Window Nov 10–12 · Alpe d'Huez

5. Day 1·Nov 1·Likely·35cmFirst prediction

   Confidence builds: 34.7cm for Narvik Nov 11–13

   The prediction for the mid-November North Atlantic system indicates a total of 34.7cm for Narvik over the window of November 11 to November 13, with a range of 19.1–54cm. The largest daily accumulation is expected on November 13, with 13.9cm likely. This pattern suggests a favorable setup for snowfall across the Alps and wider Europe, with Narvik positioned to benefit significantly from the incoming system. Resorts like Narvik are likely to see solid snowfall, while others may miss out on the heavier totals. If the models shift towards a stronger system or a change in the prevailing patterns, we could see adjustments in the predicted totals.

   Window Nov 11–13 · Narvik

snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.

Enlarge rain / snow line

• LiveMyrkdalenbiggest day 13cm on 14 Nov · newPredicted30cm2–93cm, models far apart
• LiveStrandabiggest day 15cm on 14 Nov · on trackPredicted29cm3–56cm across the models
• LiveMölltal Glacierbiggest day 15cm on 13 Nov · newPredicted21cm11–38cm across the models
• LiveSaas-Feebiggest day 9cm on 17 Nov · newPredicted14cm2–30cm across the models
• LiveSan Martino di Castrozzabiggest day 7cm on 16 Nov · newPredicted11cm0–26cm, models far apart
• LiveNarvikbiggest day 3cm on 15 Nov · delayedPredicted4cm0–9cm, models far apart