Mid-November North Atlantic System

1. Day 8·Nov 10·Likely·41cm(-28)

   Day 8: totals down 28.2cm; confidence likely, window opens Nov 13

   Day 8: the top total has decreased by 28.2cm since our last update, but the window has shifted to open one day earlier, now running from November 13 to November 16. Current predictions show Stranda leading with 40.5cm, followed closely by Voss at 37.2cm and Myrkdalen at 35.5cm over the window. All resorts have shown a trend on track with likely confidence. As we approach the event, we will monitor any changes in the forecast models, particularly regarding snowfall distribution and timing. The biggest day is expected on November 15, with Stranda and Voss both projected to receive significant totals.

   Window Nov 13–16 · Stranda

2. Day 7·Nov 9·Watching·69cm(+31)

   Day 7: totals up 30.8cm; confidence watching, window holds

   Day 7: totals are up 30.8cm since our last entry, and the window remains unchanged from November 14 to November 20. Current predictions show La Grave leading with 68.7cm, followed by Alpe d'Huez at 59.4cm and Les Deux Alpes at 54.5cm, all with the biggest day expected on November 20. Aiguille du Midi, Voss, and Stranda are also included in this window, but their totals are lower. We are watching the confidence level closely as it has shifted to watching, indicating some uncertainty in the models. The next few days will be crucial for refining these totals.

   Window Nov 14–20 · La Grave

3. Day 6·Nov 8·Likely·38cm(-39)

   Day 6: totals down 39cm, 8–69cm for Isola 2000

   Day 6: totals down 39cm at Isola 2000, the window slid 3 days later, 5 resorts joined the path. Current prediction: 8–69cm for Isola 2000 between 2026-11-14 and 2026-11-17, 38cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-17 at 27cm. Also in the path: Prato Nevoso 37cm, Artesina 36cm, Stranda 35cm, and 2 more. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. By resort: Likely at 3 of 6 resorts. On day one we said 39cm from 2026-11-15; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 6 days to go.

   Window Nov 14–17 · Isola 2000

4. Day 5·Nov 7·Likely·77cm(+39)

   Confidence likely: 76.9cm for Stranda Nov 11–16

   Day 5: totals up 39.1cm for Stranda since the previous entry, and the window held. We are now predicting a total of 76.9cm for Stranda over the window from November 11 to November 16, with the biggest day expected to be November 14 at 21.3cm. Confidence remains likely, and the trend is strengthening as we approach the event. As we look ahead, we will monitor the actual snowfall amounts closely as the storm approaches. The current forecast indicates a significant accumulation, but we will keep an eye on any shifts in the models that could affect timing or totals.

   Window Nov 11–16 · Stranda

5. Day 4·Nov 6·Likely·38cm(-1)

   Confidence likely: 37.8cm for Stranda Nov 11–14

   Day 4: the top total for Stranda is down 1.3cm since the previous entry, but the window has moved 4 days earlier. We now predict 37.8cm over the window from November 11 to November 14, with a range of 9.5–80.5cm. The biggest day is expected to be November 13, with 15.1cm. While confidence is likely, we note a weakening trend in the data, so we will continue to monitor the situation closely. Next, we will watch for any shifts in model outputs as we approach the start of the window.

   Window Nov 11–14 · Stranda

6. Day 3·Nov 5·Watching·39cmFirst prediction

   Confidence builds: 39.1cm for Stranda Nov 15–18

   THE PREDICTION: We anticipate a total of 39.1cm for Stranda over the window from November 15 to 18, with a range of 3.8–57.3cm. The current pattern suggests a favorable setup for snowfall across the Alps and wider Europe, with conditions trending on track for this event. Stranda stands to benefit the most, particularly on November 17, when we expect the biggest day with 30.3cm. Other resorts may see varying amounts, but they are not listed here, so we focus on Stranda. A shift in the forecast could occur if the models diverge significantly in the coming days, which would impact our confidence in these totals.

   Window Nov 15–18 · Stranda

snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.

Enlarge rain / snow line

• LiveCourmayeurbiggest day 32cm on 19 Nov · newPredicted100cm42–173cm across the models
• LiveLa Thuilebiggest day 32cm on 19 Nov · newPredicted99cm51–165cm across the models
• LiveMéribelbiggest day 33cm on 19 Nov · strengtheningPredicted98cm56–172cm across the models
• LiveGrands Montetsbiggest day 35cm on 19 Nov · delayedPredicted94cm46–137cm across the models
• LiveGlacier 3000 - Les Diableretsbiggest day 36cm on 19 Nov · newPredicted90cm40–132cm across the models
• LiveLa Plagnebiggest day 32cm on 18 Nov · newPredicted75cm50–123cm across the models
• LiveVerbierbiggest day 25cm on 19 Nov · delayedPredicted72cm43–127cm across the models
• LiveLes Arcsbiggest day 31cm on 18 Nov · newPredicted71cm51–97cm across the models
• LiveCrans-Montanabiggest day 35cm on 19 Nov · newPredicted71cm34–104cm across the models
• LiveAlpe d'Huezbiggest day 28cm on 17 Nov · delayedPredicted66cm30–106cm across the models
• LiveLa Gravebiggest day 24cm on 18 Nov · delayedPredicted61cm29–91cm across the models
• LiveLes Deux Alpesbiggest day 22cm on 18 Nov · on trackPredicted55cm25–88cm across the models
• LiveVossbiggest day 12cm on 15 Nov · on trackPredicted26cm2–60cm, models far apart
• LiveNarvikbiggest day 3cm on 15 Nov · newPredicted3cm0–6cm, models far apart