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Storm WatchLikely

Mid-November North Atlantic System

3 resorts in the path, 70cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one.

+70CM

Predicted at Aiguille du Midi

9–167cm, models far apart

Storm

Nov 14–22

3 resorts in the path

Peak

Nov 14

15cm at Stranda

Predicted

70cm

Aiguille du Midi · 9–167cm, models far apart

Confidence

Likely

Updated

Nov 12, 06:30 UTC

S

SnowSure Forecaster

Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Nov 12, 06:30 UTC

Current prediction: 9–167cm for Stranda between 2026-11-14 and 2026-11-22, 70cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-14 at 15cm. Also in the path: Myrkdalen 28cm, Voss 26cm. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.

Forecast log

Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.

  1. Day 4·Nov 12·Watching·117cm(-4)

    Confidence watching: 117cm for Aiguille du Midi Nov 15–21

    Day 4: top total down 4.3cm since the previous entry and the window start moved one day later. We are currently predicting a window from November 15 to November 21, with Aiguille du Midi leading at 117.1cm, followed closely by La Grave at 114.8cm and Alpe d'Huez at 113.2cm. Confidence remains watching across the board, with trends strengthening for several resorts. As we approach the window, we will monitor the developments closely, particularly for resorts like Les Deux Alpes and Grands Montets, which are also showing promising totals.

    Window Nov 15–21 · Aiguille du Midi

  2. Day 3·Nov 11·Watching·121cm(+70)

    Confidence watching: 121cm for Aiguille du Midi Nov 14–22

    Day 3: totals up 69.7cm since the previous entry and the window start moved 3 days earlier. The forecast for the mid-November North Atlantic system indicates a window from November 14 to November 22, with Aiguille du Midi leading at 121.4cm, followed by Grands Montets at 106.6cm and Glacier 3000 at 100.2cm. Confidence remains watching across the board, with the biggest day expected on November 18 at Aiguille du Midi with 30.5cm. We will continue to monitor the situation closely as we approach the opening of the window.

    Window Nov 14–22 · Aiguille du Midi

  3. Day 2·Nov 10·Watching·52cmFirst prediction

    Confidence growing: 51.7cm for Aiguille du Midi Nov 17–21

    The prediction for the mid-November North Atlantic system indicates 51.7cm for Aiguille du Midi, with a range of 3.1–136.9cm. Current patterns suggest a favorable setup for snowfall across the Alps and wider Europe, though confidence remains variable and trends are still developing. Among the resorts, Aiguille du Midi appears to lead, followed closely by Alpe d'Huez with 45.2cm and La Grave at 43.6cm. Krvavec is expected to receive less, totaling 33.8cm. A shift in the forecast could occur if models show a significant change in storm intensity or trajectory.

    Window Nov 17–21 · Aiguille du Midi

Snow by day

Nov 13 – Nov 23, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.

Strandabase 430 m · summit 1,151 m

70cm snow

Modelled at the summit, 1,151 m · snow to the base

Freeze
line
m
Snow
/ rain
cm · mm
summit 1,151 mbase 430 m4304305104304304304304304304304303158474781184

Fri

Nov 13

Snow

Sat

Nov 14

Snow

Sun

Nov 15

Snow

Mon

Nov 16

Snow

Tue

Nov 17

Snow

Wed

Nov 18

Snow

Thu

Nov 19

Snow

Fri

Nov 20

Snow

Sat

Nov 21

Snow

Sun

Nov 22

Snow

Mon

Nov 23

Snow

How the call movedone reading
70Day 3

snow every day

Myrkdalenbase 450 m · summit 1,060 m

28cm snow18mm rain

Modelled at the summit, 1,060 m · snow above 679 m

Freeze
line
m
Snow
/ rain
cm · mm
summit 1,060 mbase 450 m45045067945045045045045045045045013610115223426

Fri

Nov 13

Dry

Sat

Nov 14

Mixed

Sun

Nov 15

Mixed

Mon

Nov 16

Mixed

Tue

Nov 17

Snow

Wed

Nov 18

Dry

Thu

Nov 19

Dry

Fri

Nov 20

Snow

Sat

Nov 21

Snow

Sun

Nov 22

Snow

Mon

Nov 23

Snow

How the call movedone reading
28Day 3

snow Tue, Fri, Sat, Sun · rain low, snow high Sat, Sun, Mon (above about 679 m)

Vossbase 284 m · summit 964 m

26cm snow20mm rain

Modelled at the summit, 964 m · snow above 662 m

Freeze
line
m
Snow
/ rain
cm · mm
summit 964 mbase 284 m28451166236028428428428428428428481312662134310

Fri

Nov 13

Dry

Sat

Nov 14

Mixed

Sun

Nov 15

Mixed

Mon

Nov 16

Snow

Tue

Nov 17

Snow

Wed

Nov 18

Dry

Thu

Nov 19

Snow

Fri

Nov 20

Snow

Sat

Nov 21

Snow

Sun

Nov 22

Snow

Mon

Nov 23

Snow

How the call movedone reading
26Day 3

snow Mon, Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat, Sun · rain low, snow high Sat, Sun (above about 662 m)

snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.

Rain / snow line

Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.

Snow line against every mountain in Mid-November North Atlantic System

Enlarge rain / snow line

The system

700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.

700mb flow map for Mid-November North Atlantic System

72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.

Loading forecast map…
scandinavia 72h snowfall forecast — Snowsure

In the path

Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.

← All storm watches

Last updated 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-11-09 with 30cm forecast at Stranda.