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Storm WatchWatching

Mid-November North Atlantic System

2 resorts in the path, 55cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely.

+55CM

Predicted at Aiguille du Midi

36–109cm across the models

Storm

Nov 18–21

2 resorts in the path

Peak

Nov 19

24cm at Alpe d'Huez

Predicted

55cm

Aiguille du Midi · 36–109cm across the models

Confidence

Watching

Updated

Nov 12, 06:30 UTC

S

SnowSure Forecaster

Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Nov 12, 06:30 UTC

Current prediction: 36–109cm for Alpe d'Huez between 2026-11-18 and 2026-11-21, 55cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-19 at 24cm. Also in the path: Krvavec 8cm. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 45cm for Alpe d'Huez; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.

Forecast log

Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.

  1. Day 4·Nov 12·Watching·117cm(-4)

    Confidence watching: 117cm for Aiguille du Midi Nov 15–21

    Day 4: top total down 4.3cm since the previous entry and the window start moved one day later. We are currently predicting a window from November 15 to November 21, with Aiguille du Midi leading at 117.1cm, followed closely by La Grave at 114.8cm and Alpe d'Huez at 113.2cm. Confidence remains watching across the board, with trends strengthening for several resorts. As we approach the window, we will monitor the developments closely, particularly for resorts like Les Deux Alpes and Grands Montets, which are also showing promising totals.

    Window Nov 15–21 · Aiguille du Midi

  2. Day 3·Nov 11·Watching·121cm(+70)

    Confidence watching: 121cm for Aiguille du Midi Nov 14–22

    Day 3: totals up 69.7cm since the previous entry and the window start moved 3 days earlier. The forecast for the mid-November North Atlantic system indicates a window from November 14 to November 22, with Aiguille du Midi leading at 121.4cm, followed by Grands Montets at 106.6cm and Glacier 3000 at 100.2cm. Confidence remains watching across the board, with the biggest day expected on November 18 at Aiguille du Midi with 30.5cm. We will continue to monitor the situation closely as we approach the opening of the window.

    Window Nov 14–22 · Aiguille du Midi

  3. Day 2·Nov 10·Watching·52cmFirst prediction

    Confidence growing: 51.7cm for Aiguille du Midi Nov 17–21

    The prediction for the mid-November North Atlantic system indicates 51.7cm for Aiguille du Midi, with a range of 3.1–136.9cm. Current patterns suggest a favorable setup for snowfall across the Alps and wider Europe, though confidence remains variable and trends are still developing. Among the resorts, Aiguille du Midi appears to lead, followed closely by Alpe d'Huez with 45.2cm and La Grave at 43.6cm. Krvavec is expected to receive less, totaling 33.8cm. A shift in the forecast could occur if models show a significant change in storm intensity or trajectory.

    Window Nov 17–21 · Aiguille du Midi

Snow by day

Nov 17 – Nov 22, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.

Alpe d'Huezbase 1,860 m · summit 3,330 m

55cm snow

Modelled at the summit, 3,330 m · snow to the base

Freeze
line
m
Snow
/ rain
cm · mm
summit 3,330 mbase 1,860 m2,0921,9341,8601,8601,8601,86028232493

Tue

Nov 17

Snow

Wed

Nov 18

Snow

Thu

Nov 19

Snow

Fri

Nov 20

Snow

Sat

Nov 21

Dry

Sun

Nov 22

Snow

How the call moved+10cm
4555Day 2Day 4

snow Wed, Thu, Fri

Krvavecbase 1,450 m · summit 1,971 m

8cm snow29mm rain

Modelled at the summit, 1,971 m · snow above 1,822 m

Freeze
line
m
Snow
/ rain
cm · mm
summit 1,971 mbase 1,450 m1,7111,8221,7481,4501,4501,450221423454

Tue

Nov 17

Rain

Wed

Nov 18

Mixed

Thu

Nov 19

Mixed

Fri

Nov 20

Snow

Sat

Nov 21

Dry

Sun

Nov 22

Dry

How the call movedone reading
8Day 2

snow Fri · rain low, snow high Wed, Thu (above about 1,822 m)

snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.

Rain / snow line

Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.

Snow line against every mountain in Mid-November North Atlantic System

Enlarge rain / snow line

The system

700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.

700mb flow map for Mid-November North Atlantic System

72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.

Loading forecast map…
alps 72h snowfall forecast — Snowsure

In the path

Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.

← All storm watches

Last updated 2026-11-11 00:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-11-10 with 45cm forecast at Alpe d'Huez.