Mid-November North Atlantic System
1 resort in the path, 26cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely.
+26CM
Predicted at Stranda
7–62cm, models far apart
Storm
Nov 19–21
1 resort in the path
Peak
Nov 21
11cm at Stranda
Predicted
26cm
Stranda · 7–62cm, models far apart
Confidence
Watching
Updated
Nov 8, 06:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Nov 8, 06:30 UTC
Current prediction: 7–62cm for Stranda between 2026-11-19 and 2026-11-21, 26cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-21 at 11cm. Stranda is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 41cm for Stranda; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 1·Nov 8·Watching·41cmFirst prediction
Forecast for Alps: 40.9cm at Stranda Nov 19–21, range 3.5–71.6cm
The prediction for the mid-November North Atlantic system indicates a total of 40.9cm at Stranda over the window from November 19 to 21, with a range of 3.5–71.6cm. Current patterns suggest a favorable setup for snowfall across the Alps and wider Europe, with confidence levels trending on track as we approach the event. Stranda stands to benefit significantly from this system, with the biggest day expected to deliver 22.5cm on November 21. Other resorts may not see the same levels of accumulation, potentially missing out on substantial snowfall. Changes in the forecast could arise from shifts in model outputs or unexpected atmospheric conditions.
Window Nov 19–21 · Stranda
Snow by day
Nov 18 – Nov 22, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Strandabase 430 m · summit 1,151 m
26cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 1,151 m · snow to the base
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Snow
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
Sun
Nov 22
Snow
snow every day
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-11-08 12:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-11-08 with 41cm forecast at Stranda.
