Early-November Japan Sea System

1. Day 8·Nov 7·Watching·34cmLanded

   The window opened today. Final prediction: 33.7cm for Kiroro 2026-11-07 to 2026-11-09.

   The window opened today with a final prediction of 33.7cm for Kiroro, with totals expected to range from 10.2–78.4cm. The biggest day is forecasted for 2026-11-07, with 16.6cm expected. Since our day-1 call of 33.5cm, the total has increased by 2.8cm. While we are currently watching the confidence level, the overall trend remains new. We have added Kiroro to our focus, while Niseko Hanazono Resort has been dropped from consideration.

   Window Nov 7–9 · Kiroro

2. Day 7·Nov 4·Watching·34cm(+3)

   Day 7: totals up 2.8cm for Kiroro; confidence watching

   Day 7: the top total is up 2.8cm since the previous entry, and the window has held. Our current prediction for the window from 2026-11-07 to 2026-11-09 shows a total of 33.7cm for Kiroro, with a range of 10.2–78.4cm and the biggest day expected on 2026-11-07 at 16.6cm. While we have confidence in the window, we are still watching closely as trends develop. As we approach the event, we will keep an eye on model consistency and any shifts in timing or totals. The situation remains fluid, and we will update as new data comes in.

   Window Nov 7–9 · Kiroro

3. Day 6·Nov 3·Likely·31cm

   Day 6: call holds, 10–64cm for Niseko Hanazono Resort

   Day 6: totals held at Niseko Hanazono Resort, the window held. Current prediction: 10–64cm for Niseko Hanazono Resort between 2026-11-07 and 2026-11-09, 31cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-07 at 13cm. Niseko Hanazono Resort is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. On day one we said 34cm from 2026-11-07; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 4 days to go.

   Window Nov 7–9 · Niseko Hanazono Resort

4. Day 5·Nov 2·Likely·31cm

   Day 5: totals up 0.3cm for Niseko Hanazono, window holds

   Day 5: totals up 0.3cm since our last entry, and the window remains unchanged. For the upcoming storm window from November 7 to November 9, we predict Niseko Hanazono Resort will receive 30.6cm, with a range of 7.7–63.5cm. The highest snowfall is expected on November 7, with a forecasted 13cm. As we approach the event, we will continue to monitor the data closely to refine our predictions and assess any potential changes in snowfall distribution.

   Window Nov 7–9 · Niseko Hanazono Resort

5. Day 4·Nov 1·Watching·30cm

   Day 4: call holds, 11–61cm for Niseko Grand Hirafu

   Day 4: totals held at Niseko Grand Hirafu, the window held, confidence moved from likely to watching, 1 resort joined the path. Current prediction: 11–61cm for Niseko Grand Hirafu between 2026-11-07 and 2026-11-09, 30cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-08 at 14cm. Also in the path: Kiroro 30cm. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 34cm from 2026-11-07; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 6 days to go.

   Window Nov 7–9 · Niseko Grand Hirafu

6. Day 3·Oct 31·Likely·30cm(-2)

   Confidence holds: 13.9–62.3cm for Kiroro, 2026-11-07 to 2026-11-09

   Day 3: the top total for Kiroro is down 1.9cm since the previous entry, and the window has slid a day later. For the upcoming event, we now predict a total of 30.1cm for Kiroro over the window from 2026-11-07 to 2026-11-09, with the biggest day expected to be 13.7cm on November 7. The range for this event is 13.9–62.3cm, maintaining our confidence level as likely. As we approach the event, we will continue to monitor model trends and any shifts in timing or totals. The next update will provide further clarity as we get closer to the window opening.

   Window Nov 7–9 · Kiroro

7. Day 2·Oct 30·Likely·32cm(-1)

   Confidence rises: 14–51cm for Kiroro, 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-09

   Day 2: the window has moved one day earlier, and totals have adjusted down slightly. We now expect 32cm for Kiroro over the window from 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-09, with a range of 14.3–51cm. The biggest day is projected to be 2026-11-07, with 18.1cm likely. Confidence has shifted from watching to likely, indicating a more stable forecast as models align on the event's timing and intensity. As we approach the window, we will continue to monitor any changes in model outputs and atmospheric conditions that could affect snowfall amounts. Pay attention to updates as we get closer to the event.

   Window Nov 6–9 · Kiroro

8. Day 1·Oct 29·Watching·34cmFirst prediction

   Watch issued: 9–78cm for Kiroro, 2026-11-07 to 2026-11-09

   THE PREDICTION: 9–78cm for Kiroro between 2026-11-07 and 2026-11-09, 34cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-08 at 14cm. Kiroro is the only resort clearing our threshold so far. We are watching a significant system for Japan, 9 days out. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. Resorts nearest the core of the moisture win; totals fall off away from it, and the lowest bases are the first to see rain mixed in. The prediction changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher. We will update this log every scan until the window opens.

   Window Nov 7–9 · Kiroro

No daily series on file for these resorts yet.

Enlarge rain / snow line

• LiveKirorobiggest day 17cm on 7 Nov · newPredicted34cm