Early-November Japan Sea System
4 resorts in the path, 0cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely.
0CM
Predicted at Naeba
Storm
Nov 10–12
4 resorts in the path
Predicted
0cm
Naeba
Confidence
Watching
Updated
Nov 2, 18:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Nov 2, 18:30 UTC
Current prediction: 0cm for Naeba between 2026-11-10 and 2026-11-12, 0cm our central figure. Also in the path: Kagura 0cm, Togakushi 0cm, Niseko Annupuri 0cm. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. On day one we said 40cm for Naeba; that is the number we are measured against. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 1·Nov 2·Watching·40cmFirst prediction
Watch issued: 0–97cm for Naeba, 2026-11-10 to 2026-11-12
THE PREDICTION: 0–97cm for Naeba between 2026-11-10 and 2026-11-12, 40cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-12 at 24cm. Also in the path: Kagura 37cm, Togakushi 32cm. We are watching a significant system for Japan, 8 days out. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. Resorts nearest the core of the moisture win; totals fall off away from it, and the lowest bases are the first to see rain mixed in. The prediction changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher. We will update this log every scan until the window opens.
Window Nov 10–12 · Naeba
Snow by day
Nov 9 – Nov 13, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Naebabase 900 m · summit 1,789 m
0cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 1,789 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Mon
Nov 9
—
Tue
Nov 10
—
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Dry
dry through the window
Kagurabase 620 m · summit 1,845 m
0cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 1,845 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Mon
Nov 9
—
Tue
Nov 10
—
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Dry
dry through the window
Togakushibase 1,220 m · summit 1,748 m
0cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 1,748 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Mon
Nov 9
—
Tue
Nov 10
—
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Dry
dry through the window
Niseko Annupuribase 400 m · summit 1,156 m
0cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 1,156 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Mon
Nov 9
—
Tue
Nov 10
—
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Dry
dry through the window
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-11-03 00:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-11-02 with 32cm forecast at Naeba.
