Mid-November Japan Sea System
3 resorts in the path, 32cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely.
+32CM
Predicted at Togakushi
10–72cm across the models
Storm
Nov 18–20
3 resorts in the path
Peak
Nov 20
19cm at Togakushi
Predicted
32cm
Togakushi · 10–72cm across the models
Confidence
Watching
Updated
Nov 10, 12:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Nov 10, 12:30 UTC
We are watching a significant system for Japan between 2026-11-18 and 2026-11-20. Togakushi carries the biggest signal at 32.1cm over 2026-11-18 to 2026-11-20. 3 resorts are in the path; totals fall off away from the core. At Togakushi, Myoko Kogen and Madarao the freezing level on the snow days sits between base and summit: snow on the upper mountain, rain possible low down. The call changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher.
Snow by day
Nov 17 – Nov 21, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Togakushibase 1,220 m · summit 1,748 m
32cm snow23mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,748 m · snow above 1,371 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Tue
Nov 17
Dry
Wed
Nov 18
Rain
Thu
Nov 19
Mixed
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
snow Fri · rain low, snow high Thu (above about 1,371 m) · rain Wed
Myoko Kogenbase 750 m · summit 1,500 m
16cm snow52mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,500 m · snow above 1,350 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Tue
Nov 17
Rain
Wed
Nov 18
Rain
Thu
Nov 19
Mixed
Fri
Nov 20
Mixed
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
rain low, snow high Thu, Fri (above about 1,350 m) · rain Wed
Madaraobase 910 m · summit 1,335 m
15cm snow33mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,335 m · snow above 1,335 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Tue
Nov 17
Dry
Wed
Nov 18
Rain
Thu
Nov 19
Mixed
Fri
Nov 20
Mixed
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
rain low, snow high Thu, Fri (above about 1,335 m) · rain Wed
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-11-10 12:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-11-10 with 40cm forecast at Togakushi.
