Late-October Pacific System
5 resorts in the path, 37cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one; likely at 4 of 5 resorts.
+41CM
Predicted at Alyeska Resort
4–75cm across the models
Storm
Oct 31–Nov 3
5 resorts in the path
Peak
Nov 2
22cm at Telluride
Predicted
41cm
Alyeska Resort · 4–75cm across the models
Confidence
Likely
Likely at 4 of 5 resorts
Updated
Oct 31, 00:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Oct 31, 00:30 UTC
Current prediction: 37cm for Telluride between 2026-10-31 and 2026-11-03, 37cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-02 at 22cm. Also in the path: Silverton 36cm, Alta 35cm, Shames Mountain 34cm, and 1 more. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. By resort: Likely at 4 of 5 resorts. These figures are re-read from the latest model blend; each entry in the log keeps what we said at the time.
Forecast log
Every entry, newest first. Nothing is overwritten.
- Day 4·Oct 31·Watching·41cmLanded
Day 4: window opens with totals of 40.9–30.7cm for 4 resorts
The window opened today, with final predictions of 40.9cm for Alyeska Resort, 38.4cm for Wolf Creek Ski Area, 30.9cm for Silverton, and 30.7cm for Shames Mountain. Since our day 1 call, the top total has decreased by 108.5cm, and the window start has moved one day later. Confidence for Alyeska Resort has shifted from likely to watching, while Wolf Creek remains on track. Silverton's trend is delayed, and Shames Mountain is also showing signs of weakening. We are closely monitoring these developments as the event unfolds.
Window Nov 1–5 · Alyeska Resort
- Day 3·Oct 29·Watching·41cm(-108)
Day 3: totals down 108cm, 4–75cm for Alyeska Resort
Day 3: totals down 108cm at Alyeska Resort, the window slid 1 day later, confidence moved from likely to watching, 4 dropped out. Current prediction: 4–75cm for Alyeska Resort between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-05, 41cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-03 at 22cm. Also in the path: Wolf Creek Ski Area 38cm, Silverton 31cm, Shames Mountain 31cm. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. By resort: Likely at 1 of 4 resorts. On day one we said 191cm from 2026-10-30; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 3 days to go.
Window Nov 1–5 · Alyeska Resort
- Day 2·Oct 28·Likely·149cm(-42)
Day 2: totals down 42cm, 10–318cm for Alyeska Resort
Day 2: totals down 42cm at Alyeska Resort, the window slid 1 day later, confidence moved from watching to likely, 6 resorts joined the path, 1 dropped out. Current prediction: 10–318cm for Alyeska Resort between 2026-10-31 and 2026-11-08, 149cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-11-05 at 39cm. Also in the path: Shames Mountain 46cm, Wolf Creek Ski Area 42cm, Silverton 36cm, and 4 more. Confidence is likely: the models agree on both the window and the magnitude. By resort: Likely at 6 of 8 resorts. On day one we said 191cm from 2026-10-30; that is the number we are measured against. What to watch next: whether the models hold the window, whether the low tracks closer to the core resorts, and the freezing level in the days before it arrives. 3 days to go.
Window Oct 31–Nov 8 · Alyeska Resort
- Day 1·Oct 27·Watching·191cmFirst prediction
Watch issued: 44–408cm for Alyeska Resort, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-07
THE PREDICTION: 44–408cm for Alyeska Resort between 2026-10-30 and 2026-11-07, 191cm our central figure. The biggest day is 2026-10-30 at 45cm. Also in the path: Whistler Blackcomb 47cm, Wolf Creek Ski Area 33cm. We are watching a significant system for North America, 3 days out. Confidence is watching: the signal has crossed our threshold but the models still disagree on how much. By resort: Likely at 1 of 3 resorts. Resorts nearest the core of the moisture win; totals fall off away from it, and the lowest bases are the first to see rain mixed in. The prediction changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher. We will update this log every scan until the window opens.
Window Oct 30–Nov 7 · Alyeska Resort
Snow by day
Oct 30 – Nov 4, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Telluridebase 2,659 m · summit 3,809 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Silvertonbase 3,170 m · summit 4,111 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Altabase 2,600 m · summit 3,200 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Shames Mountainbase 700 m · summit 1,189 m
—cm snow
no daily data
Wolf Creek Ski Areabase 3,121 m · summit 3,580 m
—cm snow
no daily data
No daily series on file for these resorts yet.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-10-28 00:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-10-27 with 37cm forecast at Telluride.
