Mid-November Pacific System
7 resorts in the path, 58cm at the biggest. Likely — the models agree on this one; likely at 3 of 7 resorts.
+58CM
Predicted at Kirkwood
29–114cm across the models
Storm
Nov 12–20
7 resorts in the path
Peak
Nov 13
34cm at Kirkwood
Predicted
58cm
Kirkwood · 29–114cm across the models
Confidence
Likely
Likely at 3 of 7 resorts
Updated
Nov 9, 18:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Nov 9, 18:30 UTC
We are watching a significant system for North America between 2026-11-12 and 2026-11-20. Kirkwood carries the biggest signal at 58.3cm over 2026-11-13 to 2026-11-17. 7 resorts are in the path; totals fall off away from the core. On the snow days the freezing level sits below the base at Silverton, so it should stay snow top to bottom. At Kirkwood, Purgatory Resort, Shames Mountain, Bear Valley, Telluride and Terry Peak the freezing level on the snow days sits between base and summit: snow on the upper mountain, rain possible low down. The call changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher.
Snow by day
Nov 11 – Nov 21, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Kirkwoodbase 2,377 m · summit 2,883 m
58cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 2,883 m · snow to the base
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Snow
Sat
Nov 14
Snow
Sun
Nov 15
Snow
Mon
Nov 16
Snow
Tue
Nov 17
Snow
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Snow
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
snow Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri
Purgatory Resortbase 2,680 m · summit 3,299 m
38cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 3,299 m · snow to the base
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Dry
Sat
Nov 14
Snow
Sun
Nov 15
Dry
Mon
Nov 16
Dry
Tue
Nov 17
Snow
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Snow
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
snow Sat, Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri
Shames Mountainbase 700 m · summit 1,189 m
27cm snow19mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,189 m · snow above 1,189 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Mixed
Fri
Nov 13
Mixed
Sat
Nov 14
Rain
Sun
Nov 15
Mixed
Mon
Nov 16
Snow
Tue
Nov 17
Snow
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Dry
Fri
Nov 20
Dry
Sat
Nov 21
Dry
snow Mon, Tue, Wed · rain low, snow high Thu, Fri, Sun (above about 1,189 m) · rain Sat
Bear Valleybase 2,073 m · summit 2,621 m
23cm snow16mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 2,621 m · snow above 2,308 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Mixed
Sat
Nov 14
Snow
Sun
Nov 15
Mixed
Mon
Nov 16
Snow
Tue
Nov 17
Snow
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Snow
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
snow Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri · rain low, snow high Fri, Sun (above about 2,308 m)
Silvertonbase 3,170 m · summit 4,111 m
18cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 4,111 m · snow to the base
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Dry
Sat
Nov 14
Snow
Sun
Nov 15
Dry
Mon
Nov 16
Dry
Tue
Nov 17
Snow
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Snow
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
snow Sat, Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri
Telluridebase 2,659 m · summit 3,809 m
16cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 3,809 m · snow to the base
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Dry
Sat
Nov 14
Snow
Sun
Nov 15
Dry
Mon
Nov 16
Dry
Tue
Nov 17
Snow
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Snow
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
snow Sat, Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri
Terry Peakbase 1,798 m · summit 2,153 m
6cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 2,153 m · snow to the base
linem
/ raincm · mm
Wed
Nov 11
—
Thu
Nov 12
Dry
Fri
Nov 13
Dry
Sat
Nov 14
Dry
Sun
Nov 15
Dry
Mon
Nov 16
Dry
Tue
Nov 17
Dry
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Snow
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
snow Wed, Thu, Fri
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
LiveKirkwoodbiggest day 34cm on 13 Nov · on trackPredicted58cm29–114cm across the models
LivePurgatory Resortbiggest day 16cm on 20 Nov · on trackPredicted38cm8–72cm across the models
LiveShames Mountainbiggest day 12cm on 16 Nov · newPredicted27cm6–64cm, models far apart
LiveBear Valleybiggest day 15cm on 16 Nov · on trackPredicted23cm10–56cm across the models- Silvertonbiggest day 9cm on 17 Nov · on trackPredicted18cm1–41cm, models far apart
LiveTelluridebiggest day 7cm on 17 Nov · newPredicted16cm0–38cm, models far apart
LiveTerry Peakbiggest day 2cm on 20 Nov · newPredicted6cm0–19cm, models far apart
When it cleared
When it cleared, 2 of the 3 resorts we could read were skiing soft. Silverton had the most snow in the window, 18 cm.
2 of 7 resorts in the path · Modeled
Last updated 2026-11-09 18:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-11-07 with 37cm forecast at Kirkwood.
