Mid-November Pacific System
3 resorts in the path, 30cm at the biggest. Watching — the models see it but do not yet agree closely; likely at 1 of 3 resorts.
+30CM
Predicted at Northstar at Tahoe
1–63cm, models far apart
Storm
Nov 15–21
3 resorts in the path
Peak
Nov 18
17cm at Northstar at Tahoe
Predicted
30cm
Northstar at Tahoe · 1–63cm, models far apart
Confidence
Watching
Likely at 1 of 3 resorts
Updated
Nov 12, 06:30 UTC
SnowSure Forecaster
Written from the blend and the model spread · updated Nov 12, 06:30 UTC
We are watching a significant system for North America between 2026-11-15 and 2026-11-21. Northstar at Tahoe carries the biggest signal at 30.3cm over 2026-11-17 to 2026-11-21. 3 resorts are in the path; totals fall off away from the core. On the snow days the freezing level sits below the base at Northstar at Tahoe, so it should stay snow top to bottom. At Whistler Blackcomb and Alyeska Resort the freezing level on the snow days sits between base and summit: snow on the upper mountain, rain possible low down. The call changes if model agreement loosens, the window slides later, or the freezing level trends higher.
Snow by day
Nov 14 – Nov 22, with a day either side. For each resort: where the freeze line sits against the mountain, then what falls — snow in cm, rain in mm — and the day read from those two numbers.
Northstar at Tahoebase 1,929 m · summit 2,624 m
30cm snow
Modelled at the summit, 2,624 m · snow to the base
linem
/ raincm · mm
Sat
Nov 14
Snow
Sun
Nov 15
Snow
Mon
Nov 16
Snow
Tue
Nov 17
Snow
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Snow
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Snow
Sun
Nov 22
Dry
snow every day
Whistler Blackcombbase 653 m · summit 2,284 m
23cm snow10mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 2,284 m · snow above 1,469 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Sat
Nov 14
Mixed
Sun
Nov 15
Mixed
Mon
Nov 16
Snow
Tue
Nov 17
Snow
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Dry
Fri
Nov 20
Dry
Sat
Nov 21
Dry
Sun
Nov 22
Snow
snow Mon, Tue, Wed · rain low, snow high Sun (above about 1,469 m)
Alyeska Resortbase 76 m · summit 1,201 m
20cm snow42mm rain
Modelled at the summit, 1,201 m · snow above 682 m
linem
/ raincm · mm
Sat
Nov 14
Snow
Sun
Nov 15
Mixed
Mon
Nov 16
Mixed
Tue
Nov 17
Snow
Wed
Nov 18
Snow
Thu
Nov 19
Snow
Fri
Nov 20
Snow
Sat
Nov 21
Mixed
Sun
Nov 22
Rain
snow Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri · rain low, snow high Sun, Mon, Sat (above about 682 m)
snowrain low, snow highraindryThe dots are the freeze line — the height where rain turns to snow. Solid: straight from the models. Hollow: estimated from temperature. Above the summit line it rains on the whole mountain; below the base line it snows all the way down. Blue bars are snow in cm, amber bars rain in mm; the totals above are their sums.
Rain / snow line
Base to summit for each mountain, with the snow line cut across them.
The system
700mb flow — where the storm is, and what is steering it. Pins sized by forecast total.
72-hour snowfall forecast for the same window.
In the path
Forecast, not observation — none of this has fallen yet. Totals are across the window. We will post what fell when the window closes.
Last updated 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC. SnowSure scans a blend of seven weather models twice daily and flags systems clearing 30cm over 72 hours, three to fourteen days out. This watch opened on 2026-11-12 with 44cm forecast at Northstar at Tahoe.
