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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Projected to open November 27, 2026

Best months to book: April, March, February · last season + 30-yr record

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Projected to open Nov 27 — closed April 25

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 12

today

Past 24 Hours

1cm

Past 48 Hours

5cm

Past 10 Days

30cm

7-Day Forecast

34cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 12, 9:00 PM•Weather at base: 76m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Projected to open Nov 27

Alyeska Resort is projected to open November 27, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1April128cm avg · last season 37.5
#2March125cm avg · last season 39.7
#3February161cm avg · last season 33

Best weeks to book

#1 12 Apr – 15 Apr · last season 45.3
#2 8 Mar – 14 Mar · last season 44.6
#3 15 Mar – 21 Mar · last season 40.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1,201m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM

30cm

24h

34cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now12

T13

W14

T15

F16

S17

S18

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

30cm

24h

34cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

30cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYOct 12

TueOct 13

WedOct 14

ThuOct 15

FriOct 16

SatOct 17

SunOct 18

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	12 Mon -2° / -4°			13 Tue -3° / -5°			14 Wed -2° / -8°			15 Thu -1° / -3°			16 Fri -2° / -4°			17 Sat -2° / -4°			18 Sun -3° / -11°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	19 Mon	20 Tue	21 Wed	22 Thu	23 Fri	24 Sat	25 Sun
Conditions	❄️	☁️	⛅	☁️	❄️	❄️	☁️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☁️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☁️	🌤️	⛅	☁️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️
	light snow	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	snow	snow	cloudy	snow	heavy snow	light snow	snow	snow	cloudy	snow	snow	heavy snow	heavy snow	snow	cloudy	mostly clear	some clouds	cloudy	heavy snow	snow	snow	heavy snow	heavy snow	light snow
Summit1,201 mModeled
Temp°C	-3°	-2°	-3°	-4°	-3°	-4°	-6°	-2°	-5°	-1°	-2°	-2°	-3°	-2°	-3°	-3°	-2°	-3°	-11°	-5°	-7°	-8°	-4°	-2°	-3°	-4°	-3°	-4°
Feels like°C	-7°	-5°	-7°	-7°	-6°	-8°	-10°	-6°	-9°	-5°	-5°	-6°	-7°	-6°	-6°	-6°	-5°	-6°	-15°	-8°	-11°	-12°	-9°	-5°	-6°	-8°	-7°	-7°
Snowcm	0.8	·	0.1	0.6	2.8	2.2	0.1	1.7	9	2.3	3.2	11.3	0.1	1.5	3.5	4.1	7	8	·	·	·	0.1	39.8	18.1	7.9	12.5	58.1	19.6
Precipmm	1.1	·	0.1	0.9	4.0	3.1	0.1	2.4	12.8	3.3	4.5	16.1	0.2	2.2	5.0	5.9	10.0	11.4	·	·	·	0.1	57.0	25.9	11.3	18.0	83.1	28.0
Windkm/h	3	3	3	3	2	3	6	8	7	6	2	7	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	6	18	6	3	7	18	7
Mid-mountain639 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	2°	0°	0°	1°	-1°	-3°	1°	-1°	2°	2°	2°	0°	1°	1°	1°	2°	1°	-7°	-1°	-3°	-5°	-0°	2°	1°	0°	1°	-0°
Feels like°C	-3°	-1°	-2°	-3°	-2°	-3°	-6°	-2°	-4°	-1°	-1°	-1°	-3°	-1°	-2°	-2°	-1°	-2°	-11°	-4°	-7°	-8°	-5°	-1°	-2°	-4°	-3°	-3°
Snowcm	0.8	·	0.1	0.6	2.8	2.2	0.1	1.6	8.8	2	2.9	10.6	0.1	1.5	3.4	4.1	7	8	·	·	·	0.1	39.3	15.7	7.5	12.5	58	19.5
Precipmm	1.1	·	0.1	0.9	4.0	3.1	0.1	2.4	12.8	3.3	4.5	16.1	0.2	2.2	5.0	5.9	10.0	11.4	·	·	·	0.1	57.0	25.9	11.3	18.0	83.1	28.0
Windkm/h	3	3	3	3	2	3	6	8	7	6	2	7	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	6	18	6	3	7	18	7
Base76 mModeled
Temp°C	4°	5°	4°	3°	4°	3°	1°	5°	3°	6°	5°	5°	4°	5°	5°	5°	5°	4°	-3°	2°	0°	-1°	3°	6°	4°	3°	5°	3°
Feels like°C	2°	3°	2°	1°	3°	1°	-2°	2°	0°	4°	4°	3°	2°	3°	2°	2°	3°	2°	-7°	0°	-3°	-4°	-0°	3°	3°	0°	1°	1°
Snowcm	0.6	·	0.1	0.6	2.8	2.1	0.1	1.6	8.7	2	2.9	10.6	0.1	1.5	3.3	4.1	7	7.8	·	·	·	0.1	39.3	15.7	7.1	12.5	58	19.3
Precipmm	1.1	·	0.1	0.9	4.0	3.1	0.1	2.4	12.8	3.3	4.5	16.1	0.2	2.2	5.0	5.9	10.0	11.4	·	·	·	0.1	57.0	25.9	11.3	18.0	83.1	28.0
Windkm/h	3	3	3	3	2	3	6	8	7	6	2	7	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	6	18	6	3	7	18	7
Humidity%	92	86	92	89	90	93	88	84	89	84	92	92	92	86	92	91	87	92	85	87	88	86	86	91	90	87	89	92
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	450	350	700	850	850	900	700
Sunhours																						6	0.7	2.7	3	3	0.7	3.4

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Alyeska Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Alyeska Resort (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Alaska region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Alyeska Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Alyeska Resort ranks #18 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +20% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#18 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +20% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Alyeska Resort averaged +20% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026-27, history says this is the winter to book Alyeska Resort with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 +44%, '15-16 +45%, '23-24 -29%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.

'97-98 +45%'15-16 +45%'23-24 −29%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Alyeska Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 1360 cm (535 in), about 12% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

1,360cm

10 El Niño winters · 12% above median

All-season median

1,214cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	1,360cm	1,025cm – 1,534cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	1,185cm	1,054cm – 1,558cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	1,204cm	1,072cm – 1,244cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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