El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Appi Kogen El Niño rank & forecast
Appi Kogen ranks #396 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −14% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.
#396 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter
Strong-event signal: −14% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Appi Kogen averaged -13% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -20%, '15-16 -16%, '23-24 -5%. A pattern, not a promise.
'97-98 −20%'15-16 −16%'23-24 −5%
