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Balme - Vallorcine ski resort
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Tier B — Favored

Europe

Balme - Vallorcine Snow Forecast

Off-season

Closed for the season · reopens Dec 5

Best months to book: March, February, January · 30-yr snow record

Off-season

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

4cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 5, 6:01 PM•Weather at base: 1,001m
SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book
Off-season

Balme - Vallorcine is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: March, February, January.NovDec3Jan2Feb1MarAprMay

Best months to book

  1. #1March76cm avg
  2. #2February76cm avg
  3. #3January90cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,250m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 5, 2026 at 6:01 PM

0cm
24h
4cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
—
Now5
—
T6
—
W7
3
T8
2
F9
—
S10
—
S11
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

5 Mon
10° / 3°
6 Tue
10° / 2°
7 Wed
6° / 1°
8 Thu
4° / -2°
9 Fri
1° / -3°
10 Sat
4° / -4°
11 Sun
6° / -3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight12 Mon13 Tue14 Wed15 Thu16 Fri17 Sat18 Sun
Conditions🌤️🌧️☁️🌤️🌧️🌤️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️❄️☁️☁️☀️☁️☀️☀️☁️🌤️☁️☁️
mostly clearlight drizzlecloudymostly clearlight drizzlemostly clearcloudydrizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlesnowcloudycloudyclearcloudyclearclearcloudymostly clearcloudycloudy
Summit2,250 mModeled
Temp°C5°9°4°4°9°3°3°5°3°4°2°1°-2°1°-2°-2°4°-2°0°5°0°
Feels like°C3°7°2°2°7°1°1°3°0°2°-1°-2°-5°-2°-5°-4°2°-5°-3°3°-3°
Snowcm··········6.26.9··0.8······
Precipmm·1.20.3·1.50.3·6.31.52.112.09.9··1.2······
Windkm/h262143686465323122111
Mid-mountain1,626 mModeled
Temp°C9°13°8°8°13°7°7°9°7°8°6°5°2°5°2°2°8°2°4°9°4°
Feels like°C8°12°7°7°12°6°5°7°5°6°4°3°-1°3°0°0°7°0°2°7°2°
Snowcm··········5.96.9··0.6······
Precipmm·1.20.3·1.50.3·6.31.52.112.09.9··1.2······
Windkm/h262143686465323122111
Base1,001 mModeled
Temp°C11°18°11°11°18°11°10°14°10°10°8°8°7°10°6°5°12°5°6°14°7°
Feels like°C11°18°11°10°17°10°8°14°10°10°7°7°5°8°4°3°10°3°4°12°6°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm····0.3··3.0·1.515.69.90.3·1.5······
Windkm/h151251543144254162252
Humidity%876790876190898993909994968497807291806087
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Balme - Vallorcine, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Balme - Vallorcine (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Balme - Vallorcine El Niño rank & forecast

Balme - Vallorcine ranks #138 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +6% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#138 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +6% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Balme - Vallorcine averaged +6% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -12%, '15-16 +13%, '23-24 +17%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −12%'15-16 +13%'23-24 +17%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Balme - Vallorcine, ERA5 season snowfall median was 511 cm (201 in), about 3% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

511cm

10 El Niño winters · 3% below median

All-season median

527cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10511cm484cm – 554cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12542cm511cm – 647cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8511cm455cm – 595cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Balme - Vallorcine

How much snow is Balme - Vallorcine getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 4 cm (2 in) of snow at Balme - Vallorcine over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Balme - Vallorcine?
The full 14-day forecast for Balme - Vallorcine — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Balme - Vallorcine?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.