El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Bear Valley El Niño rank & forecast
Bear Valley ranks #78 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +10% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).
#78 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain
Strong-event signal: +10% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Bear Valley averaged +10% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Bear Valley sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +16%, '15-16 -11%, '23-24 +24%. A pattern, not a promise.
'97-98 +16%'15-16 −11%'23-24 +24%
