El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Black Mountain El Niño rank & forecast
Black Mountain ranks #389 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −13% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.
#389 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter
Strong-event signal: −13% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Black Mountain averaged -12% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 +1%, '15-16 -49%, '23-24 +11%. A pattern, not a promise.
'97-98 +1%'15-16 −49%'23-24 +11%
