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Bogus Basin ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Bogus Basin Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: January, February, December · last season + 30-yr record

Off-season — closed March 21

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Sep 21, 1:01 AM•Weather at base: 1,798m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Off-season

Bogus Basin is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: January, February, December. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 8 Mar–14 Mar.Nov3Dec1Jan2FebMarAprOpens 28 NovCloses 21 Mar

January

#1 to book

40cm avg

February

#2 to book

29cm avg · scored 28.1

December

#3 to book

46cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #122 Feb – 28 Febscored 28.1
  2. #21 Mar – 7 Marscored 21.3
  3. #38 Mar – 14 Marscored 19.1

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,347m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 21, 2026 at 1:01 AM

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24h
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Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
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Now21
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T22
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W23
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T24
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F25
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S26
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S27
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

21 Mon
17° / 3°
22 Tue
17° / 5°
23 Wed
18° / 4°
24 Thu
21° / 3°
25 Fri
19° / 5°
26 Sat
9° / 0°
27 Sun
13° / -0°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight28 Mon29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat
Conditions☀️☀️☀️🌤️🌤️☁️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☁️☀️☁️☁️☁️☀️🌤️☀️
clearclearclearmostly clearmostly clearcloudyclearclearclearclearclearclearclearcloudyclearcloudycloudycloudyclearmostly clearclear
Summit2,347 mModeled
Temp°C7°17°8°8°17°8°7°17°9°8°20°10°9°18°9°3°8°5°5°12°5°
Feels like°C4°14°5°6°14°5°5°14°7°4°16°6°6°13°5°0°5°1°1°9°1°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm··············0.3······
Windkm/h48328428271656157664376
Mid-mountain2,073 mModeled
Temp°C9°18°9°10°19°10°9°19°11°9°22°11°11°20°11°5°10°6°6°14°6°
Feels like°C6°16°7°8°16°8°7°16°9°6°18°8°8°15°7°2°7°3°3°10°3°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm··············0.3······
Windkm/h48328428271656157664376
Base1,798 mModeled
Temp°C10°20°11°12°21°12°11°21°13°11°24°13°13°22°13°7°12°8°8°16°8°
Feels like°C9°18°10°10°18°10°9°18°11°8°20°10°10°17°9°4°9°5°5°12°5°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm··············0.3······
Windkm/h48328428271656157664376
Humidity%683369643159612946532042422143773957392341
0°C linem—————————————————————
Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Bogus Basin, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Bogus Basin (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Pacific Northwest & BC region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Bogus Basin El Niño rank & forecast

Bogus Basin ranks #99 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +9% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#99 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Bogus Basin averaged +9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Bogus Basin sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -6%, '15-16 -17%, '23-24 +49%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −6%'15-16 −17%'23-24 +49%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Bogus Basin, ERA5 season snowfall median was 155 cm (61 in), about 11% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

155cm

10 El Niño winters · 11% below median

All-season median

175cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10155cm114cm – 176cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12195cm166cm – 217cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8191cm147cm – 202cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Bogus Basin

How much snow is Bogus Basin getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Bogus Basin over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Bogus Basin?
The full 14-day forecast for Bogus Basin — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Bogus Basin?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.