El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Cape Smokey El Niño rank & forecast
Cape Smokey ranks #158 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +4% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.
#158 of 488Tier B — Favored
Strong-event signal: +4% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cape Smokey averaged +4% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 +4%, '15-16 -8%, '23-24 +17%. A pattern, not a promise.
'97-98 +4%'15-16 −9%'23-24 +17%
