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Cape Smokey ski resort

North America

Cape Smokey Snow Forecast

Off-season

Closed for the season · reopens Dec 6

Best months to book: February, March, January · 30-yr snow record

Off-season

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Sep 21, 9:01 PMWeather at base: 15m
SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book
Off-season

Cape Smokey is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, March, January.NovDec3Jan1Feb2MarAprMay

February

#1 to book

65cm avg

March

#2 to book

54cm avg

January

#3 to book

69cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

320m

Updated Sep 21, 2026 at 9:01 PM

0cm
24h
0cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
Now21
T22
W23
T24
F25
S26
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Days 814 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

21 Mon
14° /
22 Tue
13° /
23 Wed
12° /
24 Thu
17° /
25 Fri
15° /
26 Sat
13° /
27 Sun
14° /
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight28 Mon29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun
Conditions🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️🌤️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️
light drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlecloudymostly clearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearcloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudy
Summit320 mModeled
Temp°C10°13°10°12°12°10°16°12°15°10°11°13°10°11°13°10°
Feels like°C12°10°15°10°13°11°12°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.40.90.8·················0.4
Windkm/h1191118222085119697119149119611
Mid-mountain168 mModeled
Temp°C11°14°10°11°13°10°13°11°17°13°16°11°12°14°11°12°14°11°
Feels like°C13°11°16°11°14°10°12°10°13°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.40.90.8·················0.4
Windkm/h1191118222085119697119149119611
Base15 mModeled
Temp°C12°15°11°12°14°10°11°14°12°18°10°14°17°12°13°15°12°13°15°12°
Feels like°C10°14°10°12°10°18°12°15°10°11°14°10°11°14°10°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.40.90.8·················0.4
Windkm/h1191118222085119697119149119611
Humidity%837286765683776385735781646974897788807178
0°C linem
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cape Smokey, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cape Smokey (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Eastern Canada region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Cape Smokey El Niño rank & forecast

Cape Smokey ranks #158 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +4% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier BFavored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#158 of 488Tier BFavored

Strong-event signal: +4% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cape Smokey averaged +4% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 +4%, '15-16 -8%, '23-24 +17%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +4%'15-16 −9%'23-24 +17%

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Cape Smokey, ERA5 season snowfall median was 310 cm (122 in), about 2% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

310cm

10 El Niño winters · 2% above median

All-season median

303cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10310cm288cm – 362cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12294cm251cm – 355cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8322cm293cm – 389cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

Frequently asked questions about Cape Smokey

How much snow is Cape Smokey getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Cape Smokey over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Cape Smokey?
The full 14-day forecast for Cape Smokey — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Cape Smokey?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.