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Cardrona Alpine Resort ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier B — Favored

Oceania

Cardrona Alpine Resort Snow Forecast

28

Fair

↘declining

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

14cm

Snow Depth

75cm

Resort reported
🎿

Powder Days

10

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

1

2026 season

Updated: Oct 12, 9:01 PM•Weather at base: 1,260m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
28
Fair
↓declining

Adequate snow - check forecasts before booking.

Cardrona Alpine Resort currently has no snow coverage due to unseasonably warm temperatures and a lack of recent snowfall. The forecast remains dry, and the season's snowfall is significantly below historical averages, indicating poor conditions for skiing.

✓

Depth

75cm depth — good coverage on most runs.

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Recent

No significant recent snowfall.

↓

Forecast

14cm in the next 7 days.

—

Historic

82% of average - near normal.

Data updated Mon, Oct 12, 09:01 PM UTC

Snow Summary

1,909m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 9:01 PM

0cm
24h
14cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
—
Now13
1
W14
12
T15
1
F16
—
S17
—
S18
—
M19
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

13 Tue
5° / -0°
14 Wed
5° / -1°
15 Thu
-0° / -6°
16 Fri
-1° / -7°
17 Sat
6° / -7°
18 Sun
10° / -4°
19 Mon
7° / -3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun26 Mon
Conditions🌧️🌧️🌤️🌤️🌤️🌧️⛅❄️🌧️☁️🌤️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☁️⛅☀️
light drizzledrizzlemostly clearmostly clearmostly clearlight drizzlesome cloudslight snowlight drizzlecloudymostly clearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearcloudysome cloudsclear
Summit1,909 mModeled
Temp°C1°4°2°2°5°2°-4°-1°-4°-5°-2°-5°-4°5°-2°-1°8°2°-1°6°2°
Feels like°C-2°2°0°-1°2°-1°-8°-5°-7°-9°-6°-8°-7°4°-5°-4°8°-1°-5°3°-2°
Snowcm0.1··0.6·0.50.422.8············
Precipmm1.25.71.20.90.22.00.52.94.0············
Windkm/h76241143645741111237136
Mid-mountain1,585 mModeled
Temp°C3°7°4°4°7°4°-2°1°-2°-3°0°-3°-2°7°0°1°10°4°1°8°4°
Feels like°C0°4°2°1°4°1°-5°-2°-5°-7°-4°-6°-5°6°-3°-1°10°1°-2°5°0°
Snowcm·····0.10.41.32.8············
Precipmm1.25.71.20.90.22.00.52.94.0············
Windkm/h76241143645741111237136
Base1,260 mModeled
Temp°C5°9°6°6°9°6°0°3°0°-1°2°0°0°9°2°3°12°6°3°11°6°
Feels like°C3°7°5°4°6°3°-3°0°-2°-4°-1°-4°-3°9°0°1°13°3°0°8°3°
Snowcm······0.30.52············
Precipmm1.25.71.20.90.22.00.52.94.0············
Windkm/h76241143645741111237136
Humidity%928894875379877690806079726470735862715257
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cardrona Alpine Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cardrona Alpine Resort (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Cardrona Alpine Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Cardrona Alpine Resort ranks #127 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +7% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#127 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +7% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cardrona Alpine Resort averaged +7% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -21%, '15-16 +11%, '23-24 +30%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −21%'15-16 +11%'23-24 +30%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Cardrona Alpine Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 143 cm (56 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

143cm

6 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median

All-season median

143cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6143cm118cm – 165cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4123cm104cm – 164cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21144cm100cm – 172cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Cardrona Alpine Resort

How much snow is Cardrona Alpine Resort getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 14 cm (6 in) of snow at Cardrona Alpine Resort over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Cardrona Alpine Resort?
The full 14-day forecast for Cardrona Alpine Resort — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Cardrona Alpine Resort?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.