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Carezza ski resort
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Tier C — ENSO-proof

Europe

Carezza Snow Forecast

Pre-season — not open yet

Projected to open November 27, 2026

Best months to book: March, February, January · 30-yr snow record

Pre-season — not open yet

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 5, 6:01 PM•Weather at base: 1,182m
SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book
Pre-season — not open yet

Carezza is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: March, February, January.NovDec3Jan2Feb1MarAprMay

Best months to book

  1. #1March29cm avg
  2. #2February27cm avg
  3. #3January27cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,337m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 5, 2026 at 6:01 PM

0cm
24h
0cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
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Now5
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T6
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W7
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T8
0
F9
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S10
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S11
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

5 Mon
9° / 2°
6 Tue
9° / 1°
7 Wed
9° / 0°
8 Thu
7° / 1°
9 Fri
5° / 0°
10 Sat
7° / 0°
11 Sun
9° / -1°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight12 Mon13 Tue14 Wed15 Thu16 Fri17 Sat18 Sun
Conditions☁️☁️☁️☀️☀️☀️☀️🌤️☀️🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️☁️☁️🌧️🌧️🌤️☀️⛅☀️
cloudycloudycloudyclearclearclearclearmostly clearclearlight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlecloudycloudycloudylight drizzlelight drizzlemostly clearclearsome cloudsclear
Summit2,337 mModeled
Temp°C5°8°4°4°9°3°3°8°2°5°7°3°1°4°1°2°6°1°2°8°2°
Feels like°C3°6°2°1°6°0°0°5°0°2°4°1°-3°1°-2°0°3°-1°-1°4°-1°
Snowcm··············1.3··0.1···
Precipmm·3.3·······1.21.84.2·0.31.82.40.30.6···
Windkm/h120262283594845142261
Mid-mountain1,760 mModeled
Temp°C6°12°6°4°12°4°3°11°4°6°10°6°4°8°4°3°9°3°2°11°3°
Feels like°C4°10°4°1°10°2°0°9°2°5°8°4°1°5°2°1°7°0°-1°8°0°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·3.0········4.26.0··1.20.9·····
Windkm/h242362252143854333343
Base1,182 mModeled
Temp°C10°16°10°7°16°8°7°15°8°10°14°10°7°12°8°7°13°7°5°15°7°
Feels like°C9°15°8°6°14°6°5°13°6°10°13°9°5°10°6°5°11°5°3°12°4°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·3.0········4.26.0··1.20.9·····
Windkm/h242362252143854333343
Humidity%726281844677664677948192845883896281724272
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Carezza, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Carezza (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Carezza El Niño rank & forecast

Carezza ranks #188 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +2% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#188 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +2% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Carezza averaged +2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -14%, '15-16 -15%, '23-24 +35%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −14%'15-16 −15%'23-24 +35%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Carezza, ERA5 season snowfall median was 161 cm (63 in), about 3% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

161cm

10 El Niño winters · 3% below median

All-season median

167cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10161cm117cm – 238cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12182cm157cm – 259cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8145cm117cm – 217cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Carezza

How much snow is Carezza getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Carezza over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Carezza?
The full 14-day forecast for Carezza — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Carezza?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.