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Cerro Castor ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Cerro Castor Snow Forecast

49

Good

→stable

Last Snowfall

Sep 20

2d ago

Past 24 Hours

15cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

15cm

Past 10 Days

20cm

7-Day Forecast

2cm

Snow Depth

12cm

Resort reported
🎿

Powder Days

7

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 6:02 PM•Weather at base: 195m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
49
Good
→stable

Exceptional season - 320cm already this season!

Cerro Castor is currently experiencing partly cloudy conditions with a temperature of -3°C. The snow depth is at 12cm, with 20cm of snowfall recorded over the past week. Looking ahead, the forecast suggests an additional 2cm of snow in the next seven days.

AI-generated summary
—

Depth

12cm depth — adequate for most conditions.

↓

Recent

In the last week, 20cm of fresh snow has fallen.

↓

Forecast

2cm in the next 7 days.

✓

Historic

Season-to-date snow accumulation is 244% of the 5-year average, which is 131cm.

Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 06:02 PM UTC

Snow Summary

1,057m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 6:02 PM

20cm
24h
2cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
20
Prev10d
—
Now22
1
W23
—
T24
1
F25
1
S26
0
S27
0
M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
-3° / -12°
23 Wed
-3° / -12°
24 Thu
-1° / -12°
25 Fri
-3° / -8°
26 Sat
-2° / -9°
27 Sun
-1° / -10°
28 Mon
0° / -7°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions⛅🌤️☁️☁️❄️⛅🌤️🌤️🌤️🌧️❄️⛅❄️☁️☁️☀️☁️☀️🌤️⛅⛅
some cloudsmostly clearcloudycloudysnowsome cloudsmostly clearmostly clearmostly clearlight drizzlelight snowsome cloudslight snowcloudycloudyclearcloudyclearmostly clearsome cloudssome clouds
Summit1,057 mModeled
Temp°C-9°-3°-8°-8°-3°-8°-9°-2°-7°-4°-3°-6°-6°-2°-7°-6°-1°-7°-5°-1°-6°
Feels like°C-13°-8°-12°-12°-9°-13°-13°-6°-11°-8°-9°-10°-9°-6°-10°-9°-5°-11°-8°-4°-9°
Snowcm····0.80.1···0.610.10.2········
Precipmm····1.10.1···0.91.40.10.3········
Windkm/h49441910256132010273284244
Mid-mountain626 mModeled
Temp°C-6°0°-5°-5°-1°-5°-6°1°-5°-1°0°-3°-3°1°-4°-3°2°-4°-2°2°-3°
Feels like°C-10°-5°-9°-9°-6°-10°-10°-3°-8°-5°-6°-7°-6°-3°-7°-6°-2°-8°-5°-1°-6°
Snowcm····0.80.1···0.610.10.2········
Precipmm····1.10.1···0.91.40.10.3········
Windkm/h49441910256132010273284244
Base195 mModeled
Temp°C-4°2°-2°-2°2°-3°-3°4°-2°2°3°0°0°3°-1°0°5°-1°1°5°0°
Feels like°C-7°-1°-5°-6°-3°-7°-7°0°-5°-2°-2°-4°-3°0°-4°-3°1°-5°-2°2°-3°
Snowcm····0.80.1···0.30.90.10.2········
Precipmm····1.10.1···0.91.40.10.3········
Windkm/h49441910256132010273284244
Humidity%856785877888795988908385866283776285846085
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cerro Castor, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cerro Castor (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Cerro Castor El Niño rank & forecast

Cerro Castor ranks #25 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +16% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#25 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +16% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cerro Castor averaged +16% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Cerro Castor sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -3%, '15-16 +20%, '23-24 +32%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −3%'15-16 +20%'23-24 +32%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+16%

Measured to date

+182%

Season total

320 cm

Vs predicted

+166%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Cerro Castor, ERA5 season snowfall median was 170 cm (67 in), about 17% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

170cm

6 El Niño winters · 17% above median

All-season median

145cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6170cm124cm – 203cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4114cm106cm – 142cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21145cm119cm – 200cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Cerro Castor

How much snow is Cerro Castor getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 2 cm (1 in) of snow at Cerro Castor over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Cerro Castor?
The full 14-day forecast for Cerro Castor — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Cerro Castor?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.