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Cerro Perito Moreno ski resort
Tier C — ENSO-proof

South America

Cerro Perito Moreno Snow Forecast

32

Solid

↗improving

Last Snowfall

Sep 22

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

46cm

Snow Depth

~25cm

Open-Meteo model
🎿

Powder Days

3

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 3:01 AM•Weather at base: 915m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
32
Solid
↑improving

Adequate snow - check forecasts before booking.

Currently, Cerro Perito Moreno has not received any new snow in the past week, with a season total of 117cm so far. The weather is overcast and temperatures are around -9°C, which may impact skiing conditions. Looking ahead, the forecast suggests a potential average snowfall of 64cm over the next 14 days, with some models indicating even higher amounts.

AI-generated summary
↓

Depth

25cm depth — upper mountain may be better.

↓

Recent

No new snow has fallen in the past week.

✓

Forecast

46cm in the next 7 days.

↓

Historic

This season's total of 117cm is 62% of the 5-year average of 189cm at this point in the season.

Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 03:01 AM UTC

Snow Summary

2,216m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 3:01 AM

0cm
24h
46cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
2
Now22
17
W23
7
T24
9
F25
5
S26
2
S27
3
M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
-3° / -10°
23 Wed
-0° / -5°
24 Thu
2° / -5°
25 Fri
2° / -5°
26 Sat
2° / -6°
27 Sun
3° / -7°
28 Mon
2° / -9°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions☁️🌧️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌤️☁️🌧️🌤️🌧️🌧️🌧️
cloudylight drizzlecloudydrizzlelight rainrainheavy drizzledrizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlemostly clearcloudylight drizzlemostly clearlight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzle
Summit2,216 mModeled
Temp°C-7°-3°-7°-3°-2°-4°-4°1°-3°-4°1°-3°-4°2°-3°-5°2°-5°-6°1°-6°
Feels like°C-11°-7°-11°-7°-5°-7°-7°-2°-6°-7°-2°-6°-7°-2°-6°-8°-1°-8°-9°-3°-9°
Snowcm0.821.93.110.620.44.3110.41.10.40.40.5·1.6·0.10.60.80.40.6
Precipmm1.22.82.74.515.229.16.13.014.81.61.30.80.72.62.7·1.30.81.21.00.8
Windkm/h273462163262262341132
Mid-mountain1,566 mModeled
Temp°C-3°1°-3°1°3°0°1°5°1°0°6°1°1°6°1°-1°6°-1°-2°5°-2°
Feels like°C-6°-2°-6°-2°0°-2°-2°3°-2°-2°3°-2°-2°3°-1°-3°4°-3°-4°2°-4°
Snowcm0.80.71.92.2·6.73·7.40.7·0.40.1·0.1··0.10.7·0.4
Precipmm1.22.82.74.515.229.16.13.014.81.61.30.80.72.62.7·1.30.81.21.00.8
Windkm/h273462163262262341132
Base915 mModeled
Temp°C1°5°1°5°7°4°5°10°5°5°10°5°5°10°5°4°10°4°3°9°3°
Feels like°C-2°3°-1°3°5°3°3°8°3°3°7°3°3°8°4°2°9°2°1°7°0°
Snowcm0.60.3················0.3·0.3
Precipmm1.22.82.74.515.229.16.13.014.81.61.30.80.72.62.7·1.30.81.21.00.8
Windkm/h273462163262262341132
Humidity%758287909390937584896683898088916490956286
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cerro Perito Moreno, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cerro Perito Moreno (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Cerro Perito Moreno El Niño rank & forecast

Cerro Perito Moreno ranks #234 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, −1% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#234 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: −1% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cerro Perito Moreno averaged -1% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -27%, '15-16 +15%, '23-24 +8%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −27%'15-16 +15%'23-24 +8%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−1%

Measured to date

−47%

Season total

117 cm

Vs predicted

−46%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Cerro Perito Moreno, ERA5 season snowfall median was 282 cm (111 in), about 2% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

282cm

6 El Niño winters · 2% above median

All-season median

277cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6282cm213cm – 299cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4269cm222cm – 333cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21273cm201cm – 297cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Cerro Perito Moreno

How much snow is Cerro Perito Moreno getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 46 cm (18 in) of snow at Cerro Perito Moreno over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Cerro Perito Moreno?
The full 14-day forecast for Cerro Perito Moreno — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Cerro Perito Moreno?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.