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Coronet Peak ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Oceania

Coronet Peak Snow Forecast

32

Solid

→stable

Last Snowfall

Sep 22

today

Past 24 Hours

2cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

2cm

Past 10 Days

19cm

7-Day Forecast

16cm

Snow Depth

55cm

Resort reported
🎿

Powder Days

8

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

1

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 7:01 AM•Weather at base: 1,168m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
32
Solid
→stable

Adequate snow - check forecasts before booking.

Coronet Peak currently has a solid snow depth of 55cm, providing decent coverage for skiing. Despite clear skies, no new snow has fallen in the past week, but the 14-day forecast suggests an average of 16cm may be on the way.

AI-generated summary
✓

Depth

55cm depth — good coverage on most runs.

—

Recent

In the last 48 hours, 2cm of new snow was reported, but there has been no snowfall in the past week.

↓

Forecast

16cm in the next 7 days.

✓

Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is 110% of the 5-year average, with 118cm reported so far.

Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 07:01 AM UTC

Snow Summary

1,649m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 7:01 AM

19cm
24h
16cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
19
Prev10d
4
Now22
0
W23
0
T24
0
F25
—
S26
11
S27
0
M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
-1° / -7°
23 Wed
-1° / -9°
24 Thu
2° / -9°
25 Fri
4° / -4°
26 Sat
6° / -4°
27 Sun
-0° / -6°
28 Mon
-0° / -6°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions☀️❄️🌧️❄️☁️🌤️⛅☁️☁️⛅🌧️🌧️☁️☁️☁️❄️❄️☁️🌧️⛅☁️
clearsnowlight drizzlelight snowcloudymostly clearsome cloudscloudycloudysome cloudslight drizzlelight drizzlecloudycloudycloudyheavy snowlight snowcloudylight drizzlesome cloudscloudy
Summit1,649 mModeled
Temp°C-3°-1°-5°-6°-2°-6°-5°1°-5°-2°3°-2°-2°4°-1°-5°-5°-4°-3°0°-4°
Feels like°C-7°-5°-8°-10°-6°-10°-9°-3°-8°-5°-1°-5°-5°1°-4°-9°-9°-8°-8°-5°-8°
Snowcm0.63.31.50.40.10.1··0.60.1·0.80.1·0.78.60.9120.40.1·
Precipmm0.84.72.10.60.10.2··0.80.20.31.10.1·1.012.31.317.10.50.1·
Windkm/h78647331022622836659158
Mid-mountain1,409 mModeled
Temp°C-1°0°-3°-5°-1°-5°-4°3°-3°-1°5°-1°-1°6°0°-4°-3°-3°-2°1°-2°
Feels like°C-5°-4°-7°-8°-5°-8°-7°-1°-7°-3°1°-4°-3°3°-3°-7°-7°-6°-6°-4°-6°
Snowcm0.63.31.50.40.10.1··0.60.1·0.80.1·0.18.60.911.70.40.1·
Precipmm0.84.72.10.60.10.2··0.80.20.31.10.1·1.012.31.317.10.50.1·
Windkm/h78647331022622836659158
Base1,168 mModeled
Temp°C0°2°-1°-3°1°-3°-2°4°-2°1°6°1°1°7°2°-2°-2°-1°0°3°0°
Feels like°C-3°-2°-5°-7°-3°-7°-5°1°-5°-1°3°-2°-2°5°-1°-6°-5°-4°-4°-2°-4°
Snowcm0.42.10.80.40.10.1··0.60.1·0.80.1·0.18.60.98.30.2··
Precipmm0.84.72.10.60.10.2··0.80.20.31.10.1·1.012.31.317.10.50.1·
Windkm/h78647331022622836659158
Humidity%677480835978826384895878846879928189796779
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Coronet Peak, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Coronet Peak (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Coronet Peak El Niño rank & forecast

Coronet Peak ranks #39 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +14% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#39 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +14% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Coronet Peak averaged +14% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Coronet Peak sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +10%, '15-16 +41%, '23-24 -10%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +10%'15-16 +41%'23-24 −10%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+14%

Measured to date

+9%

Season total

118 cm

Vs predicted

−4%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Coronet Peak, ERA5 season snowfall median was 167 cm (66 in), about 11% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

167cm

6 El Niño winters · 11% above median

All-season median

151cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6167cm146cm – 178cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4147cm142cm – 162cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21151cm118cm – 198cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Coronet Peak

How much snow is Coronet Peak getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 16 cm (6 in) of snow at Coronet Peak over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Coronet Peak?
The full 14-day forecast for Coronet Peak — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Coronet Peak?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.