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Craigieburn ski resort
Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Oceania

Craigieburn Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: July, August, September · last season + 30-yr record

Not operating today

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 17

4d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

10cm

7-Day Forecast

15cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

12

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2

2026 season

Updated: Sep 21, 5:01 AM•Weather at base: 1,310m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
Not operating today

Craigieburn is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: July, August, September. Best weeks: 25 Jul–31 Jul, 22 Aug–28 Aug, 18 Jul–24 Jul.1Jul2Aug3SepOpens 18 Jul

July

#1 to book

43cm avg · scored 26.1

August

#2 to book

38cm avg · scored 23.5

September

#3 to book

29cm avg · scored 33.5

Best weeks to book

  1. #125 Jul – 31 Julscored 28.3
  2. #222 Aug – 28 Augscored 30.9
  3. #318 Jul – 24 Julscored 23.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

In the last 7 days, 10cm of snow has accumulated.

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Forecast

15cm in the next 7 days.

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Historic

So far this season, snow accumulation is at 98% of the 5-year average for this date, which is 148cm.

Not operating today · Data updated Mon, Sep 21, 05:01 AM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

1,811m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 21, 2026 at 5:01 AM

10cm
24h
15cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
10
Prev10d
—
Now21
3
T22
3
W23
0
T24
1
F25
0
S26
9
S27
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

21 Mon
3° / -5°
22 Tue
3° / -5°
23 Wed
-1° / -8°
24 Thu
3° / -9°
25 Fri
-0° / -5°
26 Sat
2° / -3°
27 Sun
0° / -7°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight28 Mon29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun
Conditions⛅⛅⛅☁️🌧️⛅❄️❄️☀️☀️🌧️☀️☁️🌧️⛅☁️⛅☁️❄️❄️🌧️
some cloudssome cloudssome cloudscloudylight drizzlesome cloudslight snowlight snowclearclearlight drizzleclearcloudylight drizzlesome cloudscloudysome cloudscloudyheavy snowsnowheavy drizzle
Summit1,811 mModeled
Temp°C-2°2°-2°-3°2°-2°-5°-2°-6°-4°2°-6°-2°-1°-4°-2°1°-2°-4°-5°-4°
Feels like°C-6°-2°-7°-7°-3°-6°-9°-6°-10°-7°-2°-10°-6°-4°-7°-5°-3°-6°-8°-11°-8°
Snowcm··1.10.8·4.10.50.30.9···0.41.50.1··0.77.13.45
Precipmm··1.61.40.55.80.70.41.3·0.3·0.62.20.2··1.010.14.87.1
Windkm/h131513616105926115654813510159
Mid-mountain1,561 mModeled
Temp°C0°4°-1°-1°4°0°-4°0°-5°-2°4°-4°-1°1°-2°0°3°-1°-2°-4°-2°
Feels like°C-4°0°-5°-5°-1°-4°-7°-4°-8°-6°0°-8°-4°-2°-5°-4°-1°-4°-6°-9°-6°
Snowcm···0.8·1.40.50.30.9····0.60.1··0.77.13.42.7
Precipmm··1.61.40.55.80.70.41.3·0.3·0.62.20.2··1.010.14.87.1
Windkm/h131513616105926115654813510159
Base1,310 mModeled
Temp°C2°6°1°0°5°1°-2°2°-3°0°5°-2°1°3°0°2°5°1°0°-2°-1°
Feels like°C-2°1°-3°-3°0°-2°-6°-2°-6°-4°2°-6°-2°0°-3°-2°1°-2°-4°-7°-4°
Snowcm···0.7·0.80.50.30.9·········6.33.40.8
Precipmm··1.61.40.55.80.70.41.3·0.3·0.62.20.2··1.010.14.87.1
Windkm/h131513616105926115654813510159
Humidity%857290865087754681655084878992887492898389
0°C linem—————————————————————
Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Craigieburn, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Craigieburn (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Craigieburn El Niño rank & forecast

Craigieburn ranks Under review SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −6% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

Under reviewTier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −6% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

This resort carries no separate rank: its 30-year record is identical to broken-river, which is the ranked entry for this measurement. At ~31km resolution the reanalysis cannot resolve them as different mountains, so publishing both would be publishing one number twice.

'97-98 −2%'15-16 −16%'23-24 −1%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−6%

Measured to date

+7%

Season total

144 cm

Vs predicted

+13%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Craigieburn, ERA5 season snowfall median was 168 cm (66 in), about 6% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

168cm

6 El Niño winters · 6% below median

All-season median

179cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6168cm144cm – 180cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4188cm135cm – 263cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21186cm149cm – 221cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Craigieburn

How much snow is Craigieburn getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 15 cm (6 in) of snow at Craigieburn over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Craigieburn?
The full 14-day forecast for Craigieburn — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Craigieburn?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.