Asia
Elmadağ Snow Forecast
Projected to open Jan 5
Projected to open January 5, 2027
Best months to book: January, February, March · 30-yr snow record
Scroll for happiness
Projected to open Jan 5
Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.
Last Snowfall
Nov 8
5d agoPast 24 Hours
0cm
Past 48 Hours
0cm
Past 10 Days
0cm
7-Day Forecast
0cm
Snow Depth
--
Elmadağ is projected to open January 5, 2027. Here is when it is usually best to book.
Best months to book
- #1January20cm avg
- #2February15cm avg
- #3March12cm avg
Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.
Snow Summary
Updated Nov 10 at 4:01 AM · may be delayed
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
No measurement at base height reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.
Hourly Forecast
13 Fri 13° / 3° | 14 Sat 11° / 5° | 15 Sun 8° / 3° | 16 Mon 9° / 2° | 17 Tue 10° / 0° | 18 Wed 12° / 2° | 19 Thu 12° / 2° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 20 Fri | 21 Sat | 22 Sun | 23 Mon | |
| Conditions | ☁️ | ⛅ | ⛅ | ☁️ | 🌤️ | 🌤️ | 🌧️ | ⛅ | ⛅ | ☁️ | 🌤️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ⛅ | ☁️ | 🌤️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ||||
| cloudy | some clouds | some clouds | cloudy | mostly clear | mostly clear | light drizzle | some clouds | some clouds | cloudy | mostly clear | clear | clear | clear | clear | some clouds | cloudy | mostly clear | clear | clear | clear | |||||
| BaseModeled | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 6° | 11° | 7° | 8° | 10° | 8° | 7° | 7° | 5° | 1° | 4° | 1° | 1° | 6° | 1° | 2° | 8° | 3° | 4° | 9° | 4° | ||||
| Feels like°C | 2° | 8° | 3° | 4° | 6° | 3° | 3° | 4° | 2° | 2° | 4° | 1° | 2° | 6° | 1° | 3° | 8° | 3° | 3° | 8° | 3° | ||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.1 | · | 0.2 | · | · | · | ||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.2 | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.6 | · | 0.4 | · | · | 0.1 | ||||
| Windkm/h | 8 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | ||||
| SummitModeled | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 6° | 11° | 7° | 8° | 10° | 8° | 7° | 7° | 5° | 1° | 4° | 1° | 1° | 6° | 1° | 2° | 8° | 3° | 4° | 9° | 4° | ||||
| Feels like°C | 2° | 8° | 3° | 4° | 6° | 3° | 3° | 4° | 2° | 2° | 4° | 1° | 2° | 6° | 1° | 3° | 8° | 3° | 3° | 8° | 3° | ||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.1 | · | 0.2 | · | · | · | ||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.2 | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.6 | · | 0.4 | · | · | 0.1 | ||||
| Windkm/h | 8 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | ||||
| Mid-mountainModeled | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| Feels like°C | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| Snowcm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| Precipmm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| Windkm/h | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| Humidity% | 91 | 62 | 86 | 87 | 66 | 87 | 90 | 83 | 89 | 97 | 73 | 95 | 86 | 67 | 88 | 88 | 65 | 84 | 83 | 58 | 76 | ||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| Sunhours | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.
Every model for Elmadağ, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.
Unlock with ProSnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting
The black line is not a simple average. For Elmadağ (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
- 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
- 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
- 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →ENSO seasonal analog
History · not a forecastIn 10 past El Niño winters at Elmadağ, ERA5 season snowfall median was 56 cm (22 in), about 4% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
ASO 2026 · ANOM +2.46°C
Analog season median
56cm
10 El Niño winters · 4% below median
All-season median
58cm
Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 10 | 56cm | 43cm – 74cm | 2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009 |
| La Niña | 12 | 76cm | 47cm – 98cm | 2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010 |
| ENSO-neutral | 8 | 55cm | 47cm – 68cm | 2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
Local Reports
0 reportsHow accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
Frequently asked questions about Elmadağ
- How much snow is Elmadağ getting this week?
- The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 2 cm (1 in) of snow at Elmadağ over the next 7 days.
- What is the 14-day snow forecast for Elmadağ?
- The full 14-day forecast for Elmadağ — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
- How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Elmadağ?
- We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.
