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Fox Peak ski resort
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Oceania

Fox Peak Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: August, September · last season + 30-yr record

Not operating today

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 17

4d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

6cm

7-Day Forecast

16cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

15

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2

2026 season

Updated: Sep 21, 9:01 AM•Weather at base: 1,330m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
Not operating today

Fox Peak is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: August, September. Best weeks: 20 Aug–26 Aug, 27 Aug–2 Sep, 13 Aug–19 Aug.1Aug2Sep

August

#1 to book

49cm avg · scored 32.3

September

#2 to book

41cm avg · scored 42.2

Best weeks to book

  1. #120 Aug – 26 Augscored 40.3
  2. #227 Aug – 2 Sepscored 44.7
  3. #313 Aug – 19 Augscored 25.4

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

In the past week, 6cm of snow has fallen.

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Forecast

16cm in the next 7 days.

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Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is at 220cm, which is 86% of the 5-year average for this time of year.

Not operating today · Data updated Mon, Sep 21, 09:01 AM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

1,910m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 21, 2026 at 9:01 AM

6cm
24h
16cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
6
Prev10d
—
Now21
5
T22
0
W23
—
T24
2
F25
0
S26
8
S27
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

21 Mon
0° / -8°
22 Tue
-2° / -9°
23 Wed
-4° / -15°
24 Thu
-1° / -14°
25 Fri
-2° / -9°
26 Sat
-1° / -10°
27 Sun
-4° / -9°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight28 Mon29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun
Conditions🌤️🌤️☀️🌤️🌤️☀️⛅☁️☀️☀️☀️☀️❄️❄️☁️☁️☁️☁️❄️❄️❄️
mostly clearmostly clearclearmostly clearmostly clearclearsome cloudscloudyclearclearclearclearlight snowlight snowcloudycloudycloudycloudysnowsnowsnow
Summit1,910 mModeled
Temp°C-4°0°-4°-5°-3°-5°-11°-5°-10°-8°-2°-10°-5°-2°-6°-6°-2°-5°-8°-8°-8°
Feels like°C-8°-4°-8°-9°-6°-9°-15°-9°-14°-11°-5°-13°-8°-5°-9°-9°-5°-9°-12°-13°-12°
Snowcm··2.70.3·6.2······0.50.6···2.522.33.5
Precipmm··3.90.4·8.9······0.70.8···3.62.83.35.0
Windkm/h81211595364354363575101610
Mid-mountain1,620 mModeled
Temp°C-2°1°-2°-3°-1°-3°-9°-3°-8°-6°0°-8°-3°0°-4°-4°0°-3°-6°-6°-6°
Feels like°C-6°-2°-6°-6°-4°-7°-13°-7°-12°-9°-3°-11°-6°-3°-7°-7°-3°-7°-10°-11°-10°
Snowcm··1.30.3·6.2······0.50.6···2.522.33.5
Precipmm··3.90.4·8.9······0.70.8···3.62.83.35.0
Windkm/h81211595364354363575101610
Base1,330 mModeled
Temp°C0°3°0°-1°1°-1°-7°-1°-6°-4°2°-6°-1°2°-2°-2°2°-2°-4°-4°-4°
Feels like°C-4°0°-4°-4°-2°-4°-11°-5°-10°-7°-1°-9°-4°-1°-5°-5°-1°-5°-8°-9°-8°
Snowcm··0.10.3·3.6······0.50.6···2.522.33.5
Precipmm··3.90.4·8.9······0.70.8···3.62.83.35.0
Windkm/h81211595364354363575101610
Humidity%888784927192856585655586949498948997918790
0°C linem—————————————————————
Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Fox Peak, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Fox Peak (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Fox Peak El Niño rank & forecast

Fox Peak ranks #336 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −9% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

#336 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Fox Peak averaged -9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -26%, '15-16 -11%, '23-24 +12%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −26%'15-16 −12%'23-24 +12%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−9%

Measured to date

+23%

Season total

220 cm

Vs predicted

+31%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Fox Peak, ERA5 season snowfall median was 213 cm (84 in), about 7% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

213cm

6 El Niño winters · 7% below median

All-season median

229cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6213cm196cm – 221cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4213cm195cm – 281cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21260cm212cm – 286cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Fox Peak

How much snow is Fox Peak getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 16 cm (6 in) of snow at Fox Peak over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Fox Peak?
The full 14-day forecast for Fox Peak — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Fox Peak?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.