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Author: SnowSure

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Tier C — ENSO-proof

Europe

Limited

→stable

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Last Snowfall

Oct 13

3d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

4cm

7-Day Forecast

11cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 16, 12:05 PM•Weather at base: 192m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Limited

→stable

Limited conditions.

Currently, Gletscherwelt Zillertal 3000 has a snow depth of 38cm, with overcast conditions and temperatures around 0°C. In the past week, only 3cm of new snow has fallen, which is a modest start to the season.

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Depth

Limited depth data — check the resort snow report.

↓

Recent

No new snow has fallen in the last 24 or 48 hours, with only 3cm in the past week.

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Forecast

11cm in the next 7 days.

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Historic

So far this season, snowfall is only 1% of the 5-year average for this date, which is 509cm.

Data updated Fri, Oct 16, 12:05 PM UTC

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 16 at 12:05 PM

Snow qualityHeavyAverageLightmeasuredestimated

Freezing line

3cm

Season

4cm

Past 10 days

0cm

48h

0cm

24h

0cm

Today

33cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed14

Thu15

14 daystotal

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SunOct 4

Mon5

Tue6

Wed7

Thu8

Fri9

Sat10

Sun11

Mon12

Tue13

TODAY16

Sat17

Sun18

Mon19

Tue20

Wed21

Thu22

Fri23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

Wed28

Thu29

Freezing line

Snow qualityHeavyAverageLightmeasuredestimated

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

Hourly Forecast

	16 Fri 5° / -2°			17 Sat 2° / -4°			18 Sun -2° / -5°			19 Mon 1° / -5°			20 Tue -1° / -4°			21 Wed -2° / -5°			22 Thu -4° / -7°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	23 Fri	24 Sat	25 Sun	26 Mon	27 Tue	28 Wed	29 Thu
Conditions	☁️	⛅	☁️	☁️	☀️	☁️	🌤️	☁️	☁️	⛅	☀️	☀️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	❄️	☁️	☁️	☀️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌤️	🌤️	⛅
	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	cloudy	clear	cloudy	mostly clear	cloudy	cloudy	some clouds	clear	clear	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	light snow	cloudy	cloudy	clear	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	mostly clear	mostly clear	some clouds
Summit991 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	4°	-1°	-2°	1°	-2°	-4°	-1°	-3°	-3°	2°	-3°	-3°	0°	-3°	-3°	-1°	-3°	-6°	-4°	-6°	-6°	-6°	-5°	-5°	-5°	-8°	-7°
Feels like°C	-2°	0°	-4°	-5°	-2°	-6°	-9°	-7°	-8°	-7°	-3°	-7°	-7°	-6°	-7°	-7°	-6°	-7°	-10°	-11°	-9°	-10°	-8°	-7°	-7°	-8°	-15°	-13°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.5	3.2	3.8	5.6	5.7	1.2	8.6	2.8	0.1	0.6	·	2.4	2.7	1.2
Precipmm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.1	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.7	4.8	5.7	8.4	6.7	1.6	9.8	3.1	0.1	0.8	·	2.7	2.7	1.2
Windkm/h	4	7	3	4	6	3	8	13	7	5	8	6	9	14	9	9	8	7	5	5	3	4	5	4	3	11	8	5
Mid-mountain1,940 mModeled
Temp°C	8°	13°	7°	6°	10°	6°	5°	8°	5°	5°	11°	5°	5°	9°	6°	6°	7°	6°	2°	4°	2°	3°	3°	3°	3°	4°	1°	2°
Feels like°C	7°	10°	5°	5°	7°	4°	1°	2°	2°	2°	7°	2°	2°	4°	3°	3°	4°	3°	0°	-1°	0°	-1°	1°	2°	2°	1°	-6°	-4°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.1	0.4	1.4	·	0.3	·	1.4	1.4	0.8
Precipmm	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.6	3.4	4.6	7.7	5.4	1.3	7.9	2.5	0.1	0.6	·	2.2	2.2	1.0
Windkm/h	4	7	3	4	6	3	8	13	7	5	8	6	9	14	9	9	8	7	5	5	3	4	5	4	3	11	8	5
Base192 mModeled
Temp°C	17°	21°	16°	15°	18°	15°	13°	16°	14°	14°	19°	14°	14°	17°	14°	14°	16°	14°	11°	12°	11°	11°	12°	12°	12°	12°	9°	10°
Feels like°C	16°	19°	15°	15°	18°	14°	11°	13°	12°	13°	18°	13°	13°	14°	14°	14°	14°	14°	10°	9°	11°	10°	11°	12°	13°	11°	3°	6°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.1	0.4	1.2	·	·	·	1.2	1.2	0.7
Precipmm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.6	3.3	3.1	7.7	4.7	1.5	6.1	2.3	0.1	0.6	·	1.9	1.9	0.9
Windkm/h	4	7	3	4	6	3	8	13	7	5	8	6	9	14	9	9	8	7	5	5	3	4	5	4	3	11	8	5
Humidity%	33	34	50	55	56	74	85	78	88	86	72	90	97	92	98	98	87	98	97	93	96	84	59	66	81	85	78	64
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,000	3,800	3,000	2,900	2,550	2,250	2,300
Sunhours																						6	9	6	9	9	6	8.9

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Gletscherwelt Zillertal 3000, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Gletscherwelt Zillertal 3000 (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Gletscherwelt Zillertal 3000 El Niño rank & forecast

Gletscherwelt Zillertal 3000 ranks #223 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, −1% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#223 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: −1% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Gletscherwelt Zillertal 3000 averaged -1% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -17%, '15-16 -8%, '23-24 +22%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −17%'15-16 −8%'23-24 +22%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Gletscherwelt Zillertal 3000, ERA5 season snowfall median was 419 cm (165 in), about 6% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

419cm

10 El Niño winters · 6% below median

All-season median

447cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	419cm	386cm – 474cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	461cm	434cm – 570cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	432cm	373cm – 512cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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