Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier C — ENSO-proof

Europe

Projected to open December 27, 2026

Best months to book: April, March, February · last season + 30-yr record

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Projected to open Dec 27 — closed April 12

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 9

5d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

12cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 14, 12:05 AM•Weather at base: 2,200m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Projected to open Dec 27

Gudauri is projected to open December 27, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1April66cm avg · last season 48.8
#2March67cm avg · last season 40.4
#3February39cm avg

Best weeks to book

#1 10 Apr – 12 Apr · last season 63.3
#2 20 Mar – 25 Mar · last season 38.7
#3 27 Mar – 2 Apr · last season 40.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,784m · mid-upper

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr UKMO

Updated Oct 14, 2026 at 12:05 AM

12cm

24h

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Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

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Now14

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T15

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F16

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S17

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S18

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M19

T20

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

12cm

24h

0cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

12cm

Previous10 Days

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TODAYOct 14

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ThuOct 15

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FriOct 16

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SatOct 17

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SunOct 18

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MonOct 19

TueOct 20

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend · mid-upper forecast point

Hourly Forecast

	14 Wed 8° / -2°			15 Thu 5° / -0°			16 Fri 5° / 1°			17 Sat 6° / -0°			18 Sun 9° / -4°			19 Mon 8° / -2°			20 Tue 5° / -3°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	21 Wed	22 Thu	23 Fri	24 Sat	25 Sun	26 Mon	27 Tue
Conditions	☀️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	🌤️	🌧️	⛅	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	🌤️	🌤️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☀️	❄️
	clear	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	mostly clear	rain	some clouds	drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	clear	mostly clear	clear	mostly clear	mostly clear	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	snow	light snow	light snow	clear	snow
Summit3,071 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	7°	1°	3°	5°	1°	3°	4°	2°	2°	5°	1°	1°	8°	1°	2°	7°	0°	2°	4°	-1°	3°	1°	-2°	-5°	-7°	-4°	-6°
Feels like°C	-2°	4°	-2°	1°	2°	-1°	1°	2°	-1°	0°	3°	-2°	-2°	5°	-2°	-2°	4°	-3°	-1°	2°	-4°	0°	-3°	-5°	-9°	-10°	-7°	-10°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	2.1	·	·	1.1	1.9	·	5.1	·	·	0.1	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	0.5	8.6	3.7	1.5	0.1	6.4
Precipmm	·	0.3	0.8	2.2	2.0	3.4	0.7	10.4	4.2	5.1	2.8	8.6	·	·	0.2	·	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.5	·	0.6	2.4	12.3	4.6	1.7	0.1	7.7
Windkm/h	3	5	2	1	6	2	2	3	3	2	4	4	3	7	4	3	3	2	4	4	3	4	4	5	6	2	4	4
Mid-mountain2,636 mModeled
Temp°C	4°	10°	4°	6°	8°	4°	6°	7°	5°	5°	8°	4°	3°	11°	3°	5°	10°	3°	4°	7°	2°	5°	3°	1°	-2°	-4°	-1°	-3°
Feels like°C	1°	8°	2°	4°	6°	2°	4°	6°	2°	3°	7°	2°	1°	8°	1°	2°	7°	0°	2°	5°	0°	3°	1°	-1°	-5°	-7°	-4°	-7°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	4.3	3.1	1.2	0.1	5.7
Precipmm	·	0.3	0.8	2.2	2.0	3.4	0.7	10.4	4.2	5.1	2.8	8.6	·	·	0.2	·	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.5	·	0.6	2.4	12.3	4.6	1.7	0.1	7.7
Windkm/h	3	5	2	1	6	2	2	3	3	2	4	4	3	7	4	3	3	2	4	4	3	4	4	5	6	2	4	4
Base2,200 mModeled
Temp°C	7°	13°	7°	9°	10°	7°	9°	10°	7°	8°	11°	7°	6°	14°	6°	7°	12°	6°	7°	10°	5°	8°	6°	4°	1°	-1°	2°	-1°
Feels like°C	5°	11°	5°	7°	9°	6°	8°	9°	6°	6°	10°	5°	4°	11°	4°	5°	10°	3°	5°	8°	3°	6°	4°	2°	-2°	-4°	-1°	-4°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	2.7	2.8	1.1	0.1	5.4
Precipmm	·	0.3	0.8	2.2	2.0	3.4	0.7	10.4	4.2	5.1	2.8	8.6	·	·	0.2	·	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.5	·	0.6	2.4	12.3	4.6	1.7	0.1	7.7
Windkm/h	3	5	2	1	6	2	2	3	3	2	4	4	3	7	4	3	3	2	4	4	3	4	4	5	6	2	4	4
Humidity%	72	56	85	85	85	88	86	85	88	88	82	91	80	51	82	59	48	70	82	75	84	65	68	88	94	93	61	87
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,150	3,100	3,350	3,350	3,200	3,100	2,600
Sunhours																						3.2	3.2	3	6	3.2	3.4	4

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Gudauri, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Gudauri (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Caucasus & Eastern Turkey region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Gudauri El Niño rank & forecast

Gudauri ranks #182 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +2% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#182 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +2% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Gudauri averaged +2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — effectively ENSO-proof. Gudauri has held within a few percent of normal across every phase of the Pacific cycle, making it one of the safest bets of a record El Niño winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -34%, '15-16 -2%, '23-24 +43%.

'97-98 −34%'15-16 −2%'23-24 +43%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Gudauri, ERA5 season snowfall median was 332 cm (131 in), about 1% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

332cm

10 El Niño winters · 1% above median

All-season median

327cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	332cm	304cm – 413cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	336cm	271cm – 416cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	323cm	285cm – 390cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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