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Hanmer Springs ski resort
Tier C — ENSO-proof

Oceania

Hanmer Springs Snow Forecast

34

Solid · 2026 season average

Closed for the season · average of 73 verified open days

Best months to book: July, August, September · last season + 30-yr record

Closed for the season — closed September 13

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 21

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

1cm

Past 10 Days

10cm

7-Day Forecast

14cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

11

2026 season

Updated: Sep 20, 10:02 PM•Weather at base: 1,459m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
34

Solid

2026 season average

Hanmer Springs is closed for the season. Last season it averaged 33.6 across 73 verified open days.

Best months to book: July, August, September. Best weeks: 3 Jul–9 Jul, 10 Jul–16 Jul, 24 Jul–30 Jul.1Jul2Aug3SepOpened 3 JulClosed 13 Sep

July

#1 to book

36cm avg · scored 35.8

August

#2 to book

27cm avg · scored 32.3

September

#3 to book

21cm avg · scored 31.9

Best weeks to book

  1. #13 Jul – 9 Julscored 38.6
  2. #210 Jul – 16 Julscored 37
  3. #324 Jul – 30 Julscored 36.4

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 6 Jul – 19 Jul. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1,769m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 20, 2026 at 10:02 PM

10cm
24h
14cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
10
Prev10d
—
Now20
—
M21
3
T22
4
W23
—
T24
1
F25
—
S26
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

21 Mon
5° / -6°
22 Tue
3° / -5°
23 Wed
-3° / -9°
24 Thu
3° / -10°
25 Fri
2° / -5°
26 Sat
5° / -6°
27 Sun
1° / -7°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight28 Mon29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun
Conditions⛅🌤️🌤️❄️☀️🌤️❄️❄️☀️☀️☀️☀️☁️🌧️🌤️☀️☁️☁️❄️❄️🌧️
some cloudsmostly clearmostly clearsnowclearmostly clearlight snowlight snowclearclearclearclearcloudylight rainmostly clearclearcloudycloudysnowheavy snowdrizzle
Summit1,769 mModeled
Temp°C1°4°-2°-4°2°-1°-5°-3°-7°-3°2°-6°-1°0°-4°-1°4°-2°-3°-6°-4°
Feels like°C-5°-1°-7°-7°-3°-5°-9°-7°-10°-8°-2°-10°-4°-3°-7°-5°-1°-6°-7°-10°-8°
Snowcm···2.20.12.41.10.71.7····3.60.8···4.67.54.8
Precipmm···3.20.23.41.51.02.4···0.65.21.1···6.610.76.9
Windkm/h17191351612810391274451020851311
Mid-mountain1,614 mModeled
Temp°C2°5°-1°-3°3°0°-4°-2°-6°-2°3°-5°0°1°-3°0°5°-1°-2°-5°-3°
Feels like°C-4°0°-6°-6°-2°-4°-8°-6°-9°-7°-1°-9°-3°-2°-6°-4°0°-5°-6°-9°-7°
Snowcm···2.20.11.41.10.71.7····1.60.8···4.67.54
Precipmm···3.20.23.41.51.02.4···0.65.21.1···6.610.76.9
Windkm/h17191351612810391274451020851311
Base1,459 mModeled
Temp°C3°6°0°-2°4°1°-3°-1°-5°-1°4°-4°1°2°-2°1°6°0°-1°-4°-2°
Feels like°C-2°1°-5°-5°-1°-3°-7°-5°-8°-6°0°-8°-2°-1°-5°-3°1°-3°-5°-8°-6°
Snowcm···2.2·1.41.10.71.7····0.40.8···4.67.53.6
Precipmm···3.20.23.41.51.02.4···0.65.21.1···6.610.76.9
Windkm/h17191351612810391274451020851311
Humidity%686174955678795985634578759094815487939192
0°C linem—————————————————————
Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Hanmer Springs, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Hanmer Springs (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Hanmer Springs El Niño rank & forecast

Hanmer Springs ranks #200 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +1% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#200 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +1% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Hanmer Springs averaged +1% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 +20%, '15-16 -8%, '23-24 -10%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +20%'15-16 −8%'23-24 −10%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+1%

Measured to date

+25%

Season total

131 cm

Vs predicted

+24%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Hanmer Springs, ERA5 season snowfall median was 126 cm (50 in), about 1% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

126cm

6 El Niño winters · 1% below median

All-season median

127cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6126cm122cm – 136cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4145cm115cm – 169cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21130cm112cm – 170cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Hanmer Springs

How much snow is Hanmer Springs getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 14 cm (6 in) of snow at Hanmer Springs over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Hanmer Springs?
The full 14-day forecast for Hanmer Springs — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Hanmer Springs?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.