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Author: SnowSure

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Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

North America

Projected to open Nov 27

Projected to open November 27, 2026

Best months to book: March, February, January · 30-yr snow record

Scroll for happiness

Projected to open Nov 27

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 28

14d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

9cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 12, 11:00 PM•Weather at base: 1,924m

SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book

Projected to open Nov 27

Jackson Hole Mountain Resort is projected to open November 27, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1March59cm avg
#2February63cm avg
#3January66cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,185m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM

0cm

24h

9cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now12

T13

W14

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T15

—

F16

—

S17

—

S18

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

0cm

24h

9cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

0cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYOct 12

TueOct 13

WedOct 14

—

ThuOct 15

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FriOct 16

—

SatOct 17

—

SunOct 18

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	12 Mon 3° / -4°			13 Tue 1° / -4°			14 Wed 4° / -7°			15 Thu 7° / -8°			16 Fri 8° / -9°			17 Sat 9° / -7°			18 Sun 5° / -6°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	19 Mon	20 Tue	21 Wed	22 Thu	23 Fri	24 Sat	25 Sun
Conditions	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	⛅	⛅	🌤️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	🌤️
	drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	some clouds	some clouds	mostly clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	mostly clear	clear	clear	light drizzle	light snow	light snow	snow	light snow	mostly clear
Summit3,185 mModeled
Temp°C	-3°	2°	-2°	-2°	0°	-3°	-4°	3°	-4°	-4°	6°	-5°	-6°	6°	-5°	-3°	7°	-4°	-2°	5°	-2°	0°	0°	-1°	-5°	-5°	-7°	-10°
Feels like°C	-6°	-2°	-5°	-6°	-3°	-6°	-7°	-1°	-7°	-8°	2°	-9°	-10°	2°	-8°	-7°	3°	-7°	-5°	2°	-6°	-3°	-3°	-4°	-10°	-9°	-11°	-14°
Snowcm	2.3	0.8	1.5	0.6	2.8	4.6	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.4	6	3.9	8.7	2.3	0.1
Precipmm	3.3	1.7	2.1	0.8	4.3	6.5	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	3.1	11.6	5.5	12.4	3.3	0.1
Windkm/h	2	5	3	2	4	2	0	4	2	5	5	2	3	3	1	2	9	2	2	3	1	2	5	4	9	7	7	10
Mid-mountain2,555 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	6°	2°	2°	4°	1°	0°	7°	0°	0°	10°	-1°	-2°	10°	0°	1°	11°	1°	2°	9°	2°	4°	4°	3°	-1°	-1°	-3°	-5°
Feels like°C	-2°	3°	-1°	-1°	2°	-2°	-2°	4°	-3°	-3°	7°	-4°	-5°	7°	-4°	-3°	7°	-3°	-1°	6°	-1°	2°	1°	1°	-5°	-5°	-7°	-10°
Snowcm	1	·	·	0.2	·	2.4	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	2.7	3.9	8.7	2.3	0.1
Precipmm	3.3	1.7	2.1	0.8	4.3	6.5	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	3.1	11.6	5.5	12.4	3.3	0.1
Windkm/h	2	5	3	2	4	2	0	4	2	5	5	2	3	3	1	2	9	2	2	3	1	2	5	4	9	7	7	10
Base1,924 mModeled
Temp°C	5°	10°	6°	6°	8°	5°	4°	11°	4°	4°	14°	3°	2°	14°	4°	5°	15°	5°	6°	13°	6°	9°	8°	8°	3°	3°	1°	-1°
Feels like°C	3°	8°	4°	4°	6°	3°	3°	8°	2°	1°	11°	0°	-1°	11°	1°	2°	12°	2°	4°	11°	4°	6°	6°	6°	-1°	0°	-2°	-5°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.4	2.2	6.5	2.3	0.1
Precipmm	3.3	1.7	2.1	0.8	4.3	6.5	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	3.1	11.6	5.5	12.4	3.3	0.1
Windkm/h	2	5	3	2	4	2	0	4	2	5	5	2	3	3	1	2	9	2	2	3	1	2	5	4	9	7	7	10
Humidity%	94	67	90	88	77	94	87	47	83	72	38	75	75	29	61	51	32	56	62	44	66	58	65	84	78	88	74	64
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,550	3,300	2,800	2,450	2,200	2,650	2,250
Sunhours																						9	9	9	7	6	5.5	9

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Jackson Hole Mountain Resort (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Northern Rockies & Canadian Rockies region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Jackson Hole Mountain Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Jackson Hole Mountain Resort ranks #252 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −3% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#252 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −3% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Jackson Hole Mountain Resort averaged -3% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -12%, '15-16 -27%, '23-24 +30%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −12%'15-16 −27%'23-24 +30%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 360 cm (142 in), about 17% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

360cm

10 El Niño winters · 17% below median

All-season median

432cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	360cm	322cm – 446cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	439cm	388cm – 488cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	487cm	353cm – 529cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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