El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Kirkwood El Niño rank & forecast
Kirkwood ranks #94 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +9% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).
Strong-event signal: +9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Kirkwood averaged +9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026-27, history says this is the winter to book Kirkwood with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 +20%, '15-16 -5%, '23-24 +13%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.
