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Lagunillas ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Lagunillas Snow Forecast

84

Outstanding

↗improving

Last Snowfall

Sep 21

today

Past 24 Hours

23cm

Past 48 Hours

33cm

Past 10 Days

50cm

7-Day Forecast

8cm

Snow Depth

162cm

Open-Meteo model
🎿

Powder Days

19

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

6

2026 season

☀️❄️

Bluebird Day predicted: Sat

Updated: Sep 21, 8:02 AM•Weather at base: 2,200m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
84
Outstanding
↑improving

Fresh powder! 23cm in the last 24 hours.

Lagunillas currently has a solid snow depth of 162cm, providing excellent skiing conditions. With 41cm of snowfall in the past week, enthusiasts can expect well-covered slopes as the season progresses.

AI-generated summary
✓

Depth

162cm depth — excellent coverage.

✓

Recent

In the last 24 hours, 23cm of fresh snow has fallen.

—

Forecast

8cm in the next 7 days.

✓

Historic

This season's snow accumulation is 168% of the 5-year average to date, which is 331cm.

Data updated Mon, Sep 21, 08:02 AM UTC

Snow Summary

2,550m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 21, 2026 at 8:02 AM

50cm
24h
8cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
50
Prev10d
1
Now21
—
T22
1
W23
5
T24
2
F25
—
S26
—
S27
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

21 Mon
4° / -4°
22 Tue
6° / 1°
23 Wed
4° / 0°
24 Thu
3° / 1°
25 Fri
4° / 1°
26 Sat
7° / 1°
27 Sun
6° / -1°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight28 Mon29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun
Conditions🌤️🌤️☁️🌤️⛅☁️☁️❄️❄️☁️☁️❄️❄️❄️☁️☁️⛅☁️🌤️🌤️⛅
mostly clearmostly clearcloudymostly clearsome cloudscloudycloudylight snowsnowcloudycloudylight snowlight snowlight snowcloudycloudysome cloudscloudymostly clearmostly clearsome clouds
Summit2,550 mModeled
Temp°C-3°3°0°2°5°3°2°3°2°2°2°2°1°3°2°4°6°3°1°5°1°
Feels like°C-7°1°-4°-2°4°0°-1°-1°-2°-1°0°-2°-2°1°-1°0°4°-1°-3°3°-3°
Snowcm··0.4····0.82.5·0.11.82.51.40.5·····0.1
Precipmm··0.5···0.21.94.0·0.43.75.02.70.7····0.20.4
Windkm/h745635777224545636747
Mid-mountain2,375 mModeled
Temp°C-2°4°1°3°7°4°3°4°3°3°4°3°2°4°3°5°8°4°2°6°2°
Feels like°C-6°3°-3°-1°5°1°0°1°-1°0°1°0°0°3°0°1°5°1°-2°5°-2°
Snowcm··0.4····0.82.2·0.11.32.31.40.3······
Precipmm··0.5···0.21.94.0·0.43.75.02.70.7····0.20.4
Windkm/h745635777224545636747
Base2,200 mModeled
Temp°C0°6°2°4°8°5°5°5°4°4°5°4°3°5°4°6°9°5°3°7°3°
Feels like°C-5°4°-1°0°7°2°1°2°1°1°3°1°1°4°1°3°7°2°-1°6°-1°
Snowcm··0.4····0.82.2·0.11.32.31.40.3······
Precipmm··0.5···0.21.94.0·0.43.75.02.70.7····0.20.4
Windkm/h745635777224545636747
Humidity%464062565053717564768372867276524456615665
0°C linem—————————————————————
Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Lagunillas, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Lagunillas (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Lagunillas El Niño rank & forecast

Lagunillas ranks #7 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +51% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#7 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +51% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Lagunillas averaged +51% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Lagunillas sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +87%, '15-16 +22%, '23-24 +44%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +87%'15-16 +22%'23-24 +44%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+51%

Measured to date

+79%

Season total

557 cm

Vs predicted

+28%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Lagunillas, ERA5 season snowfall median was 518 cm (204 in), about 43% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

518cm

6 El Niño winters · 43% above median

All-season median

363cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6518cm474cm – 540cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4322cm245cm – 368cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21351cm284cm – 375cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Lagunillas

How much snow is Lagunillas getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 8 cm (3 in) of snow at Lagunillas over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Lagunillas?
The full 14-day forecast for Lagunillas — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Lagunillas?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.