North America
Projected to open Dec 11
Projected to open December 11, 2026
Best months to book: February, January, December · 30-yr snow record
Scroll for happiness
Projected to open Dec 11
Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.
Last Snowfall
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Past 24 Hours
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Past 48 Hours
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Past 10 Days
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7-Day Forecast
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Snow Depth
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Mad River Mountain is projected to open December 11, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.
Best months to book
Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.
Updated Oct 16 at 11:04 AM
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
16 Fri 20° / 9° | 17 Sat 10° / 2° | 18 Sun 15° / 1° | 19 Mon 17° / 2° | 20 Tue 18° / 5° | 21 Wed 18° / 7° | 22 Thu 16° / 5° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 23 Fri | 24 Sat | 25 Sun | 26 Mon | 27 Tue | 28 Wed | 29 Thu | |
| Conditions | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ⛅ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ⛅ | ☀️ | ☀️ | |||||||
| light drizzle | light drizzle | cloudy | clear | clear | clear | clear | clear | clear | clear | clear | clear | clear | some clouds | clear | clear | clear | clear | some clouds | clear | clear | ||||||||
| Summit445 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 16° | 12° | 15° | 4° | 9° | 6° | 4° | 13° | 6° | 6° | 16° | 8° | 8° | 17° | 9° | 8° | 17° | 10° | 8° | 17° | 10° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | 13° | 8° | 13° | -1° | 5° | 2° | 1° | 10° | 3° | 3° | 13° | 4° | 5° | 15° | 6° | 6° | 14° | 7° | 5° | 14° | 7° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | 2.0 | 0.7 | 7.1 | · | · | 0.3 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 25 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 8 | |||||||
| Mid-mountain400 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 16° | 12° | 15° | 4° | 9° | 6° | 4° | 14° | 6° | 6° | 16° | 8° | 8° | 18° | 9° | 8° | 18° | 10° | 8° | 17° | 10° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | 13° | 8° | 13° | -1° | 5° | 2° | 1° | 11° | 3° | 3° | 13° | 5° | 5° | 15° | 6° | 6° | 14° | 8° | 5° | 14° | 8° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | 2.0 | 0.7 | 7.0 | · | · | 0.3 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 25 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 8 | |||||||
| Base354 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 16° | 12° | 16° | 4° | 9° | 6° | 4° | 14° | 6° | 7° | 17° | 9° | 8° | 18° | 10° | 8° | 18° | 10° | 9° | 18° | 11° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | 14° | 8° | 14° | -1° | 6° | 3° | 1° | 11° | 3° | 3° | 14° | 5° | 6° | 16° | 6° | 7° | 15° | 8° | 6° | 14° | 8° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | 2.0 | 0.7 | 7.0 | · | · | 0.3 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 25 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 8 | |||||||
| Humidity% | 88 | 83 | 87 | 70 | 51 | 67 | 67 | 39 | 65 | 74 | 37 | 67 | 79 | 49 | 71 | 87 | 52 | 81 | 94 | 70 | 91 | |||||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| Sunhours | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.
Every model for Mad River Mountain, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.
Unlock with ProThe black line is not a simple average. For Mad River Mountain (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →Mid-Atlantic & Appalachians region
El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Mad River Mountain is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.
This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.
In 10 past El Niño winters at Mad River Mountain, ERA5 season snowfall median was 70 cm (28 in), about 18% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C
Analog season median
70cm
10 El Niño winters · 18% above median
All-season median
59cm
Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 10 | 70cm | 44cm – 85cm | 2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009 |
| La Niña | 12 | 59cm | 47cm – 71cm | 2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010 |
| ENSO-neutral | 8 | 52cm | 42cm – 67cm | 2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
How accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
