Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

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Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

North America

Projected to open Dec 11

Projected to open December 11, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, March · 30-yr snow record

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Projected to open Dec 11

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 12, 9:01 PM•Weather at base: --m

SnowSure™ ScoreWhen to book

Projected to open Dec 11

Marquette Mountain Resort is projected to open December 11, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1February27cm avg
#2January32cm avg
#3March27cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

389m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 9:01 PM

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Now12

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S17

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S18

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

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Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

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Previous10 Days

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TODAYOct 12

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TueOct 13

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WedOct 14

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ThuOct 15

FriOct 16

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SatOct 17

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SunOct 18

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	12 Mon 17° / 11°			13 Tue 12° / 9°			14 Wed 12° / 8°			15 Thu 13° / 4°			16 Fri 9° / 3°			17 Sat 16° / 2°			18 Sun 14° / 6°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	19 Mon	20 Tue	21 Wed	22 Thu	23 Fri	24 Sat	25 Sun
Conditions	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	⛅	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☁️	☁️	🌤️	☀️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	☀️	☁️
	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	some clouds	drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	clear	clear	clear	cloudy	cloudy	mostly clear	clear	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	clear	cloudy
Summit389 mModeled
Temp°C	11°	11°	13°	10°	11°	11°	10°	11°	9°	6°	12°	9°	6°	6°	6°	5°	15°	6°	7°	13°	9°	10°	10°	13°	16°	14°	17°	9°
Feels like°C	10°	9°	12°	8°	9°	9°	7°	8°	7°	3°	9°	7°	0°	0°	2°	0°	10°	2°	3°	9°	5°	8°	8°	12°	16°	13°	13°	5°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.6	1.8	2.4	1.2	0.3	11.4	·	·	·	·	·	0.3	5.7	0.9	0.6	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	16.5	4.2	4.5	·
Windkm/h	15	15	12	13	14	10	12	12	9	9	15	9	32	30	16	15	16	12	18	17	15	11	10	16	16	14	31	21
Mid-mountainModeled
Temp°C	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Feels like°C	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Snowcm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Precipmm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Windkm/h	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Humidity%	97	93	92	99	85	91	81	63	81	90	67	86	95	64	80	69	29	67	66	56	65	84	84	94	90	93	71	65
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,450	3,250	3,150	3,800	4,000	2,750	1,250
Sunhours																						9	7.9	4.8	4.7	1.7	7.9	2.6

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Marquette Mountain Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Marquette Mountain Resort (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Great Lakes & Midwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Marquette Mountain Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Marquette Mountain Resort ranks #385 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −12% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

#385 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −12% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Marquette Mountain Resort averaged -12% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -11%, '15-16 0%, '23-24 -25%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −11%'15-16 0%'23-24 −26%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Marquette Mountain Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 137 cm (54 in), about 15% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

137cm

10 El Niño winters · 15% below median

All-season median

161cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	137cm	126cm – 171cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	139cm	131cm – 174cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	186cm	174cm – 195cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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