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Monarch Mountain ski resort
Tier B — Favored

North America

Monarch Mountain Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: April, March, February · last season + 30-yr record

Closed for the season — closed April 19

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Sep 22, 9:03 AM•Weather at base: 3,231m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Closed for the season

Monarch Mountain is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: April, March, February. Best weeks: 29 Mar–4 Apr, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 12 Apr–18 Apr.DecJan3Feb2Mar1AprOpens 4 DecCloses 19 Apr

April

#1 to book

36cm avg · scored 25.6

March

#2 to book

33cm avg · scored 20.2

February

#3 to book

29cm avg · scored 25.7

Best weeks to book

  1. #129 Mar – 4 Aprscored 28
  2. #21 Mar – 7 Marscored 25.3
  3. #312 Apr – 18 Aprscored 24.3

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,668m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 9:03 AM

0cm
24h
0cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
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Now22
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W23
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T24
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F25
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S26
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S27
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M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
11° / -1°
23 Wed
10° / 1°
24 Thu
9° / 2°
25 Fri
9° / -0°
26 Sat
12° / -2°
27 Sun
13° / -0°
28 Mon
7° / 1°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions☀️🌧️☀️☁️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️☀️🌤️⛅☀️☀️🌤️🌤️☁️🌧️☁️
clearlight drizzleclearcloudycloudylight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzleclearmostly clearsome cloudsclearclearmostly clearmostly clearcloudylight drizzlecloudy
Summit3,668 mModeled
Temp°C5°10°3°4°9°3°3°7°3°3°9°2°4°12°2°6°12°4°4°7°3°
Feels like°C2°7°0°1°6°1°0°4°0°-1°5°-1°0°8°-2°2°8°1°1°4°-1°
Snowcm····················0.2
Precipmm·1.40.7·0.21.82.12.16.40.50.4········0.51.6
Windkm/h6133655896916881188137678
Mid-mountain3,450 mModeled
Temp°C7°12°4°6°10°5°4°8°4°4°10°4°5°13°3°7°13°6°6°9°4°
Feels like°C4°8°1°3°7°2°1°6°2°1°6°1°2°9°0°4°10°2°2°5°1°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·1.40.7·0.21.82.12.16.40.50.4········0.51.6
Windkm/h6133655896916881188137678
Base3,231 mModeled
Temp°C8°13°5°7°12°6°5°10°6°6°12°5°7°14°5°8°15°7°7°10°6°
Feels like°C5°10°3°5°9°4°3°8°4°3°8°2°4°11°1°5°11°4°4°7°3°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·1.40.7·0.21.82.12.16.40.50.4········0.51.6
Windkm/h6133655896916881188137678
Humidity%514474834694967898914684652870572661565172
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Monarch Mountain, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Monarch Mountain (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Monarch Mountain El Niño rank & forecast

Monarch Mountain ranks #155 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +5% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#155 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +5% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Monarch Mountain averaged +5% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -17%, '15-16 -16%, '23-24 +47%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −17%'15-16 −16%'23-24 +47%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Monarch Mountain, ERA5 season snowfall median was 196 cm (77 in), about 1% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

196cm

10 El Niño winters · 1% below median

All-season median

199cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10196cm184cm – 244cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12208cm169cm – 272cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8211cm165cm – 249cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Monarch Mountain

How much snow is Monarch Mountain getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Monarch Mountain over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Monarch Mountain?
The full 14-day forecast for Monarch Mountain — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Monarch Mountain?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.