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Monarch Mountain ski resort
Tier B — Favored

North America

Monarch Mountain Snow Forecast

Projected to open December 4, 2026

Best months to book: April, March, February · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Dec 4 — closed April 19

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 16

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

6cm

7-Day Forecast

1cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 16, 12:07 PM•Weather at base: 3,231m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Dec 4

Monarch Mountain is projected to open December 4, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: April, March, February. Best weeks: 29 Mar–4 Apr, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 12 Apr–18 Apr.DecJan3Feb2Mar1AprOpens 4 DecCloses 19 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1April34cm avg · last season 25.6
  2. #2March33cm avg · last season 20.2
  3. #3February28cm avg · last season 25.7

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 29 Mar – 4 Apr · last season 28
  2. #2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 25.3
  3. #3 12 Apr – 18 Apr · last season 24.3

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 16 at 12:07 PM

6cm
Season
2cm
Past 10 days
4cm
48h
0cm
24h
0cm
Today
1cm
Next 6 days
Days 8–14 · Pro
2
Seasontotal
4
0
Wed14
Thu15
14 daystotal
0
—
0
0
0
0
1
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
SunOct 4
Mon5
Tue6
Wed7
Thu8
Fri9
Sat10
Sun11
Mon12
Tue13
TODAY16
Sat17
Sun18
Mon19
Tue20
Wed21
Thu22
Fri23
Sat24
Sun25
Mon26
Tue27
Wed28
Thu29
Freezing line

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

Hourly Forecast

16 Fri
5° / -7°
17 Sat
9° / -6°
18 Sun
7° / -5°
19 Mon
7° / -4°
20 Tue
6° / -2°
21 Wed
9° / -3°
22 Thu
3° / -2°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun26 Mon27 Tue28 Wed29 Thu
Conditions☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️⛅❄️☀️⛅🌤️☀️🌧️🌧️☀️☀️⛅☀️🌧️🌧️🌧️
clearclearclearclearclearclearsome cloudslight snowclearsome cloudsmostly clearclearlight drizzlelight drizzleclearclearsome cloudsclearlight drizzledrizzlelight drizzle
Summit3,668 mModeled
Temp°C-3°4°-3°0°8°-1°1°6°0°0°6°0°0°5°0°1°6°0°1°5°1°
Feels like°C-7°0°-8°-4°4°-8°-3°-1°-7°-3°2°-6°-4°1°-5°-2°3°-4°-2°1°-3°
Snowcm··0.1·····0.4··0.10.2·0.20.1·0.10.10.10.8
Precipmm··0.1····0.10.5·0.40.50.50.20.40.2·0.10.42.33.8
Windkm/h57275766689651166106556
Mid-mountain3,450 mModeled
Temp°C-2°6°-2°1°9°0°2°8°1°2°7°1°2°6°1°2°7°2°3°6°2°
Feels like°C-5°1°-7°-3°6°-6°-1°1°-6°-1°4°-4°-2°3°-4°-1°5°-3°0°2°-1°
Snowcm··0.1·········0.1·0.2··0.10.10.10.2
Precipmm··0.1·····0.1·0.40.40.40.20.40.2·0.10.42.13.4
Windkm/h57275766689651166106556
Base3,231 mModeled
Temp°C-1°7°-1°3°10°2°3°9°2°3°8°2°3°8°2°4°9°3°4°8°3°
Feels like°C-4°3°-5°-1°7°-5°0°2°-4°0°5°-2°0°4°-2°1°7°-1°2°4°1°
Snowcm··0.1···········0.1····0.10.1
Precipmm··0.1·····0.1·0.30.40.40.20.3··0.10.41.52.6
Windkm/h57275766689651166106556
Humidity%312154502150495170694777825678724482929496
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Monarch Mountain, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Monarch Mountain (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Monarch Mountain El Niño rank & forecast

Monarch Mountain ranks #155 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +5% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#155 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +5% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Monarch Mountain averaged +5% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -17%, '15-16 -16%, '23-24 +47%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −17%'15-16 −16%'23-24 +47%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Monarch Mountain, ERA5 season snowfall median was 191 cm (75 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

191cm

10 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median

All-season median

192cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10191cm181cm – 232cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12204cm166cm – 243cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8190cm162cm – 225cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Monarch Mountain

How much snow is Monarch Mountain getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 1 cm (0 in) of snow at Monarch Mountain over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Monarch Mountain?
The full 14-day forecast for Monarch Mountain — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Monarch Mountain?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.