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Mountain Creek Resort ski resort
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

📷 Mountain Creek Resort

North America

Mountain Creek Resort

Status unconfirmed

Conditions data updated Fri, Aug 28, 09:03 AM UTC · informational only

Status unconfirmed

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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14-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Aug 28, 9:03 AM•Weather at base: 137m

Overview

Mountain Creek Resort is a ski resort in North America, United States, currently not operating today. Today's SnowSure™ Score is 10/100. Conditions last updated 2026-08-28 09:03 UTC.

Resort Guide

Mountain Creek Resort is located in Vernon, New Jersey, and features four mountain peaks with over 167 acres of skiable terrain and 46 trails. The resort offers a variety of experiences including skiing, snowboarding, snow tubing, and a terrain park, catering to all ability levels. Key amenities include on-site lodging, dining options, and a vibrant base area, making it a convenient destination for families and groups. Mountain Creek stands out for its proximity to the New York metropolitan area and its diverse range of winter activities.

Resort Info

Summit454m
Base137m
Vertical317m
Lifts8
Runs46
Skiable Area167 acres
Average snowfall65 inches / 165 cm
CountryUnited States
Visit Resort Website →View Trail Map →

Ski passes

No ski pass found

Access tiers change by season — confirm benefits on the pass operator's site.

Top Après Ski

Schuss Bar – Located at the base of Mountain Creek Resort, Schuss Bar is renowned for its energetic après-ski scene, offering live music, craft beers, and a welcoming atmosphere that draws both locals and visitors for post-slope relaxation and socializing.

SnowSure™ ScoreAI
Status unconfirmed

Status unconfirmed

SnowSure scores and forecasts below are for planning and reference only while the resort is closed.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

No new snow has been recorded in the past week.

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Forecast

The 14-day snow outlook is unavailable at this time.

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Historic

This season-to-date, the resort has not accumulated any snow, compared to a 5-year average of 66cm.

Status unconfirmed · Data updated Fri, Aug 28, 09:03 AM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

454mECMWF Model

Updated Aug 28, 2026 at 9:03 AM

0cm
24h
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Past 10d
14-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
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Now28
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S29
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S30
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M31
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T1
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W2
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T3
Past
Today
Forecast

Current Conditions

Reported Fri, Aug 28, 09:03 AM UTC

Base

137m

Temp

17.9°C

Wind

2.3km/h

Snow Depth

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14-Day Forecast

0cm

Mid-Mountain

296m

Temp

--°C

Wind

3km/h

Snow Depth

--

14-Day Forecast

0cm

Summit

454m

Temp

15.9°C

Wind

2.3km/h

Snow Depth

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14-Day Forecast

0cm

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Mountain Creek Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Mountain Creek Resort ranks #473 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −29% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

#473 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −29% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mountain Creek Resort averaged -29% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 +10%, '15-16 -58%, '23-24 -38%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +10%'15-16 −58%'23-24 −38%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Local Reports

0 reports
SnowSure™ Forecast Range

Daily Snowfall Forecast by Model

Black line = verified SnowSure™ blend (not a simple average). Weights update weekly from measured snowfall at SNOTEL stations and resort reports.

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Mountain Creek Resort (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Hourly Forecast Detail

AM / PM / Night breakdown with wind and freezing level

NWP models refresh up to 4× daily · Last synced Aug 28, 9:03 AM

Hourly Forecast Detail
 
Today
25 / 168.1mm
Sat, Aug 29
22 / 11
Sun, Aug 30
25 / 130.6mm
Mon, Aug 31
25 / 174.8mm
Tue, Sep 1
28 / 184.2mm
Wed, Sep 2
29 / 217.2mm
PeriodAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight
Snow (cm)000000000000000000
Precip (mm)008.100000.6000.64.201.52.701.55.7
Temp (°C)182418152115182518192419212720232822
Wind (km/h)61074371118115449138121210
Gusts (km/h)152619131514234125132121213025213626

14-Day Snow Forecast by Model

Summit elevation (454m)

ECMWF
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GFS
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GEM
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JMA
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ICON
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Météo-Fr
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SnowSure™
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10-Day Forecast

Today

28

🌦️

24.8°

15.9°

13 km/h

Sat

29

☀️

22.3°

11.1°

10 km/h

Sun

30

🌧️

25.1°

13°

19 km/h

Mon

31

🌧️

25°

16.5°

8 km/h

Tue

1

⛈️

28°

17.9°

14 km/h

Wed

2

⛈️

29.3°

20.6°

16 km/h

Thu

3

🌦️

27.3°

18.3°

16 km/h

Fri

4

🌤️

23.4°

15.2°

14 km/h

Sat

5

⛅

22.8°

12.6°

12 km/h

Sun

6

🌧️

22.5°

13.4°

8 km/h

Summit elevation (454m) • ECMWF model

Avalanche

No bulletin for this mountain

Avalanche.org (US avalanche centers)

This resort lies outside every forecast zone published by its national warning service, so no bulletin covers it.

Read the official bulletin ↗

SnowSure relays the official avalanche bulletin and does not issue avalanche forecasts. Read the full bulletin at the issuer’s link and make your own terrain decisions. Not a substitute for avalanche education, equipment, or local knowledge.

Season vs Historic

Updated Fri, Aug 28, 09:03 AM UTC

0cm

Season Total

This Season to Date

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vs 5-Year Avg

Off-season · 66cm full-season avg

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vs 30-Year Avg

Off-season · 94cm full-season avg

66cm

5-Yr Avg by Now

Mountain Creek Resort Snow History

Average annual snowfall is 96cm with an average of 39 snowfall days per season. The table below shows monthly averages across 30 seasons of archive data (modeled snowpack at mid-elevation).

Average monthly snowfall history
MonthAvg SnowfallSnowfall DaysAvg Base DepthMax Base DepthBiggest Snowfall
November4.3cm3 days0cm5cm4cm
December20.1cm7 days4cm13cm8.8cm
January24.2cm10 days8cm20cm9.5cm
February24.7cm10 days12cm25cm11.1cm
March19.6cm7 days7cm20cm9.3cm
April3.9cm2 days0cm6cm3.8cm
May0cm0 days0cm1cm0.6cm

Source: SnowSure archive · Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis at mid-elevation. Depth is modeled, not resort-reported.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Mountain Creek Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 94 cm (37 in), about 2% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

MJJ 2026 · ANOM +1.39°C

Analog season median

94 cm

10 El Niño winters · 2% above median

All-season median

92 cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent1094 cm63 cm – 137 cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña1283 cm78 cm – 102 cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8111 cm93 cm – 119 cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Best Months to Visit

February

Peak Season

January

Peak Season

March

Good

December

Good

Note: Based on typical ski season patterns for this region.

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Frequently asked questions about Mountain Creek Resort

Where is Mountain Creek Resort?
Mountain Creek Resort is a ski resort in the United States.
How high is Mountain Creek Resort?
Mountain Creek Resort runs from a base elevation of 137 m (449 ft) to a summit of 454 m (1,490 ft), giving a vertical drop of 317 m (1,040 ft).
How big is Mountain Creek Resort?
Mountain Creek Resort has 167 acres (68 hectares) of skiable terrain, 46 marked runs and 8 lifts.
Which ski pass covers Mountain Creek Resort?
Mountain Creek Resort is on the No ski pass found. Access terms such as blackout dates and day limits vary by pass tier, so check the pass operator for the current season.
How much snow does Mountain Creek Resort get in a typical season?
Mountain Creek Resort averages 65 inches / 165 cm of snowfall in a typical season. Any individual season can run well above or below that.
How will El Niño affect Mountain Creek Resort in winter 2026-27?
El Niño Signal Rank: #473 of 488 SnowSure resorts · Tier E · strong-event signal -29% vs its own 30-yr average. In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mountain Creek Resort averaged -29% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 +10%, '15-16 -58%, '23-24 -38%. A pattern, not a promise.