Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier C — ENSO-proof

Oceania

Closed for the season

Best months to book: August, September · last season + 30-yr record

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Not operating today

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 23

Past 24 Hours

2cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

4cm

Past 10 Days

12cm

7-Day Forecast

25cm

Snow Depth

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 3:04 PM•Weather at base: 1,540m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Not operating today

Mt Cheeseman is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

August

#1 to book

30cm avg · scored 27.8

September

#2 to book

23cm avg · scored 39.6

Best weeks to book

#120 Aug – 26 Augscored 28.3
#227 Aug – 2 Sepscored 41.7
#313 Aug – 19 Augscored 25.1

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

In the past week, 12cm of snow has fallen, with 4cm in the last 48 hours.

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Forecast

25cm in the next 7 days.

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Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is at 156cm, which is 99% of the 5-year average of 158cm.

Not operating today · Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 03:04 PM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

1,860m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 3:04 PM

12cm

24h

25cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now22

W23

—

T24

F25

S26

S27

M28

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

12cm

24h

25cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

12cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYSep 22

WedSep 23

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ThuSep 24

FriSep 25

SatSep 26

SunSep 27

MonSep 28

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

Unlock with Pro

Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	23 Wed -4° / -10°			24 Thu 2° / -10°			25 Fri 3° / -7°			26 Sat 7° / -4°			27 Sun -1° / -14°			28 Mon -1° / -15°			29 Tue 5° / -9°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat	4 Sun	5 Mon	6 Tue
Conditions	❄️	❄️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	⛅	🌧️	⛅	⛅	🌤️	☁️	❄️	❄️	☀️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	⛅	☀️	🌤️	⛅	☁️	🌧️	☁️	❄️	🌤️	☀️
	light snow	light snow	clear	clear	clear	clear	some clouds	light drizzle	some clouds	some clouds	mostly clear	cloudy	heavy snow	light snow	clear	clear	mostly clear	clear	some clouds	clear	mostly clear	some clouds	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	snow	mostly clear	clear
Summit1,860 mModeled
Temp°C	-7°	-5°	-8°	-5°	2°	-7°	-3°	2°	-5°	1°	6°	-1°	-8°	-7°	-9°	-9°	-2°	-10°	-3°	4°	-4°	0°	3°	3°	-2°	-3°	-3°	2°
Feels like°C	-11°	-9°	-11°	-8°	-1°	-11°	-6°	-1°	-8°	-3°	3°	-5°	-12°	-11°	-12°	-12°	-5°	-14°	-6°	2°	-8°	-3°	-0°	-1°	-5°	-7°	-7°	-1°
Snowcm	0.7	0.2	3.2	·	·	·	0.3	·	0.1	0.1	·	0.4	9.6	1	17.5	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.3	0.1	3.3	1.4	·
Precipmm	1.0	0.3	4.5	·	·	·	0.4	1.0	0.1	0.1	·	0.6	13.7	1.4	25.0	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	4.0	0.2	4.6	2.0	·
Windkm/h	8	9	2	4	5	4	6	3	5	13	10	8	11	10	5	4	4	3	3	2	4	7	9	14	4	10	10	5
Mid-mountain1,700 mModeled
Temp°C	-6°	-4°	-7°	-4°	3°	-6°	-2°	3°	-4°	2°	7°	0°	-7°	-6°	-8°	-7°	-1°	-9°	-2°	5°	-3°	1°	4°	4°	-1°	-2°	-2°	3°
Feels like°C	-10°	-7°	-10°	-7°	0°	-9°	-5°	0°	-7°	-2°	4°	-4°	-11°	-10°	-11°	-11°	-3°	-13°	-5°	3°	-6°	-2°	1°	1°	-4°	-6°	-5°	-0°
Snowcm	0.7	0.2	3.2	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	0.4	9.6	1	17.5	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.7	0.1	3.3	1.4	·
Precipmm	1.0	0.3	4.5	·	·	·	0.4	1.0	0.1	0.1	·	0.6	13.7	1.4	25.0	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	4.0	0.2	4.6	2.0	·
Windkm/h	8	9	2	4	5	4	6	3	5	13	10	8	11	10	5	4	4	3	3	2	4	7	9	14	4	10	10	5
Base1,540 mModeled
Temp°C	-5°	-3°	-6°	-3°	4°	-5°	0°	4°	-3°	3°	8°	1°	-6°	-5°	-6°	-6°	0°	-8°	-1°	6°	-2°	3°	5°	5°	0°	-1°	-1°	4°
Feels like°C	-9°	-6°	-9°	-6°	1°	-8°	-4°	1°	-6°	-1°	5°	-2°	-10°	-9°	-10°	-10°	-2°	-12°	-4°	5°	-5°	0°	2°	2°	-3°	-5°	-4°	1°
Snowcm	0.7	0.2	3.2	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	0.1	9.6	1	17.4	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.6	0.1	3	1.4	·
Precipmm	1.0	0.3	4.5	·	·	·	0.4	1.0	0.1	0.1	·	0.6	13.7	1.4	25.0	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	4.0	0.2	4.6	2.0	·
Windkm/h	8	9	2	4	5	4	6	3	5	13	10	8	11	10	5	4	4	3	3	2	4	7	9	14	4	10	10	5
Humidity%	81	65	87	61	46	80	85	68	93	77	60	87	98	83	88	66	66	75	70	59	89	78	74	82	74	87	74	63
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2,594	2,950	2,490	1,940	1,175	1,815	2,595
Sunhours																						11.8	11.8	11.8	11.9	0	11.9	12

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Mt Cheeseman, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Mt Cheeseman (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Mt Cheeseman El Niño rank & forecast

Mt Cheeseman ranks #233 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, −1% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#233 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: −1% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mt Cheeseman averaged -1% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -18%, '15-16 -10%, '23-24 +25%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −18%'15-16 −11%'23-24 +25%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−1%

Measured to date

+39%

Season total

156 cm

Vs predicted

+40%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Mt Cheeseman, ERA5 season snowfall median was 128 cm (50 in), about 11% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

128cm

6 El Niño winters · 11% below median

All-season median

144cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	128cm	122cm – 140cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	137cm	112cm – 195cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	149cm	111cm – 169cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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