Oceania
Fair
↘declining
Scroll for happiness
Last Snowfall
Sep 15
7d agoPast 24 Hours
0cm
Past 48 Hours
0cm
Past 10 Days
2cm
7-Day Forecast
0cm
Snow Depth
--
Adequate snow - check forecasts before booking.
Current conditions at Mt Mawson are mainly clear with a temperature of 1°C. Unfortunately, there has been no new snowfall in the past week, leaving the season total at 33cm, which is 107% of the 5-year average for this time of year.
Depth
No reliable depth reading available.
Recent
In the past week, there has been 2cm of new snow.
Forecast
Light snow possible this week.
Historic
This season-to-date is 221% higher than the 5-year average of 15cm.
Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 08:03 AM UTC
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.
Unlock with ProHistorical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend
22 Tue 7° / -3° | 23 Wed 9° / -4° | 24 Thu 14° / -2° | 25 Fri 12° / 3° | 26 Sat 5° / -3° | 27 Sun 8° / -4° | 28 Mon 9° / -4° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 29 Tue | 30 Wed | 1 Thu | 2 Fri | 3 Sat | 4 Sun | 5 Mon | |
| Conditions | ⛅ | 🌤️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ☁️ | ☁️ | ⛅ | 🌤️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | 🌧️ | ☀️ | ☁️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | 🌤️ | ☁️ | ☁️ | ☁️ | |||||||
| some clouds | mostly clear | clear | clear | clear | clear | cloudy | cloudy | some clouds | mostly clear | light drizzle | cloudy | light drizzle | clear | cloudy | clear | clear | mostly clear | cloudy | cloudy | cloudy | ||||||||
| Summit1,318 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 1° | 6° | -1° | 2° | 9° | -1° | 6° | 13° | 3° | 8° | 11° | 5° | 1° | 4° | 0° | 0° | 7° | -2° | 2° | 9° | 1° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -3° | 2° | -5° | -2° | 5° | -4° | 3° | 8° | -1° | 5° | 7° | 2° | -2° | -1° | -3° | -4° | 3° | -5° | 0° | 6° | -3° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.1 | · | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 15 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 6 | |||||||
| Mid-mountain1,284 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 2° | 6° | -1° | 2° | 9° | -1° | 6° | 13° | 3° | 9° | 11° | 5° | 1° | 4° | 0° | 0° | 7° | -2° | 3° | 9° | 1° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -3° | 2° | -5° | -2° | 5° | -4° | 3° | 9° | -1° | 5° | 7° | 2° | -2° | -1° | -3° | -3° | 4° | -5° | 0° | 6° | -3° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.1 | · | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 15 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 6 | |||||||
| Base1,250 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 2° | 7° | -1° | 2° | 9° | 0° | 6° | 13° | 3° | 9° | 11° | 5° | 2° | 5° | 1° | 0° | 7° | -2° | 3° | 9° | 1° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -3° | 3° | -5° | -2° | 6° | -4° | 3° | 9° | -1° | 6° | 8° | 3° | -2° | 0° | -3° | -3° | 4° | -5° | 0° | 6° | -2° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.1 | · | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 15 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 6 | |||||||
| Humidity% | 70 | 39 | 84 | 60 | 44 | 86 | 52 | 31 | 79 | 81 | 66 | 95 | 87 | 46 | 84 | 63 | 40 | 84 | 71 | 54 | 79 | |||||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| Sunhours | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.
Every model for Mt Mawson, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.
Unlock with ProThe black line is not a simple average. For Mt Mawson (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →Australia & Tasmania region
El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Mt Mawson is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.
This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.
In 6 past El Niño winters at Mt Mawson, ERA5 season snowfall median was 42 cm (17 in), about 2% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C
Analog season median
42cm
6 El Niño winters · 2% below median
All-season median
43cm
Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 6 | 42cm | 17cm – 49cm | 2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997 |
| La Niña | 4 | 32cm | 23cm – 45cm | 2022, 2010, 1999, 1998 |
| ENSO-neutral | 21 | 48cm | 29cm – 54cm | 2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
How accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
